BNB Up or Down - October 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
PM $0
1
1
BNB Up or Down - October 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract covers a 15-minute window, from 3:45 AM to 4:00 AM ET on October 20, as named in the title [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over that window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink. The provider states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A comparison with a different BNB price feed or exchange could therefore give a different answer from this contract's rules.
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T08:00:00.000Z, and the provider reports the status as active [1]. This end time is the listed close, not a confirmed resolution. The evidence does not show a resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T09:19:08.485Z [1]. These are two different times, and both describe when the data was captured, not when it is current. Prices may have changed since retrieval.
The saved snapshot shows two outcomes: "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are quoted prices in the snapshot, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The sample includes one market from one provider event, and the coverage record marks it as complete for that event, with no partial sample [1]. Because the event contains only this contract, there is no other market in the sample to compare against.
The difference between the two quoted prices is small. A reader should not treat that gap as a trading opportunity, since the snapshot does not show spreads, depth, or fees.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain the quoted prices, describe trading activity, or report any outcome after the snapshot. It also does not establish that the provider lists every possible result for this window, though this contract is binary. Readers should check the live contract and the Chainlink stream data after the listed end time to see how the window resolved.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This market is a short-window binary contract on the price of BNB against US dollars. Its title, BNB Up or Down - October 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET, names the window it covers. The listed end time is 2026-10-20T08:00:00.000Z, and the provider lists the contract as active [1]. The observation and retrieval timestamps used for this article are from October 19, 2026, so the contract had not closed at the time of retrieval and no outcome can be stated from this material [1]. The contract's rules set the outcome by comparing two prices. The provider states that the market resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over the window in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1]. An Up result therefore does not require the price to rise from start to finish. It requires the average over the window to be at least as high as the starting price. A price that ends higher than it started could still resolve Down if the average stayed below the starting level, and the reverse is also possible. The resolution source is Chainlink. The provider names the BNB/USD TWAP data stream as the source and specifies a 60-second TWAP stream [1]. The rules say the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream for the BNB/USD pair, and not any other data source or spot market [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a price shown on an exchange or aggregator should keep in mind that the contract is defined by the Chainlink stream alone. The contract is a single market under one provider event. Its displayed prices are snapshots from the observation time and are not executable quotes. Nothing in the supplied material explains why prices are where they are, so this article does not offer a reason for any movement.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the time-weighted average of the BNB/USD price in the Chainlink TWAP stream, over the 3:45 AM to 4:00 AM ET window, is at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. It is a narrow question about one data feed and one averaging method. Because the TWAP averages across the window, the result depends on the path of the price during the window and not only on its end point. The contract's wording is the authoritative definition of what is being measured, so a reader should check the rules rather than assume a general price move will decide the outcome [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What decides whether this market resolves Up?
The market resolves Up if the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
Which price data is used to settle the contract?
The provider says the resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and that other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
Is the contract's end time the same as its resolution time?
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T08:00:00.000Z [1]. The supplied material does not show when the outcome was determined or published, so the end time should not be read as a confirmed resolution time.
Does a price snapshot show the likely outcome?
No. The price snapshot reflects the market at the observation time and is not an executable quote or a verified probability. The contract's rules, not the displayed prices, determine the result [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
BNB Up or Down - October 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET
PM $0BNB Up or Down - October 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
PM $0BNB Up or Down - October 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET
PM $0BNB Up or Down - October 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET
PM $0BNB Up or Down - October 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET
PM $0BNB Up or Down - October 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET
PM $0Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.