Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will Census finalize a rule excluding undocumented immigrants?

Total Volume

$5.66K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Census finalize a rule excluding undocumented immigrants?

Vol

$5.66K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $5.66K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.66K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Census finalize a rule excluding undocumented immigrants?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Census finalize a rule excluding undocumented immigrants?	Kalshi	38%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

38%

Top Probability

$5.66K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Jan 20, 2029 If the U.S. Census Bureau announces its finalization of a rule excluding undocumented immigrants from the population used to apportion seats in the U.S. House of Representatives among the states before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Proposed rules and announcements of plans to issue a final rule do NOT qualify. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Census finalize a rule excluding undocumented immigrants?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 20, 2029

If the U.S. Census Bureau announces its finalization of a rule excluding undocumented immigrants from the population used to apportion seats in the U.S. House of Representatives among the states before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Proposed rules and announcements of plans to issue a final rule do NOT qualify. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the U.S. Census Bureau announces its finalization of a rule excluding undocumented immigrants from the population used to apportion seats in the U.S. House of Representatives among the states before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Proposed rules and announcements o"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Census finalize a rule excluding undocumented immigrants?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 27, 2029): Vol $5.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics