Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

How many lead service lines will Michigan replace in 2026?

Total Volume

$35.00K

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Trade on Kalshi

How many lead service lines will Michigan replace in 2026?

Vol

$35.00K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $35.00K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

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Volume DistributionTotal: $35.00K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 25000 in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 25000 in 2026?	Kalshi	91%
Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 27500 in 2026?	Kalshi	81%
Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 30000 in 2026?	Kalshi	57%
Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 32500 in 2026?	Kalshi	42%
Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 35000 in 2026?	Kalshi	27%
Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 37500 in 2026?	Kalshi	19%
Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 40000 in 2026?	Kalshi	15%
Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 45000 in 2026?	Kalshi	4%
Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 42500 in 2026?	Kalshi	4%
Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 50000 in 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 47500 in 2026?	Kalshi	3%

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91%

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$35.00K

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About This Event

in 2026 If the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead, GPCL, service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule is above X in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many lead service lines will Michigan replace in 2026?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2026

If the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead, GPCL, service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule is above X in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $35.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 50000 in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 29, 2027): Vol $64
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 47500 in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 29, 2027): Vol $64
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 45000 in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 42500 in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 40000 in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 29, 2027): Vol $5.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 37500 in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 29, 2027): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 35000 in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 29, 2027): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 32500 in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 29, 2027): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 30000 in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 29, 2027): Vol $10.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 57.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 27500 in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 29, 2027): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 81.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 25000 in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 29, 2027): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 91.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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