Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Name: Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$46.93K

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Markets

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Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

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Polymarket

markets · $46.93K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $46.93K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Poly	19%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

19%

Top Probability

$46.93K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a c

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (350 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a c

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

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## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $46.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.3K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 6.46)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $46.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

349d 13h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

19¢

Polymarket

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/TEXCWk" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?"></iframe>

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Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

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Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)