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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...?

Name: Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...?
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$114.02K

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Markets

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Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...?

Vol

$114.02K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $114.02K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $114.02K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will Russia capture Sofiivka by May 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by May 31?	Poly	28%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?	Poly	9%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

28%

Top Probability

$114.02K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494433° N, 37.377320° E in Sofiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change o

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, July 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494433° N, 37.377320° E in Sofiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change o

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494433° N, 37.377320° E in Sofiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (ht"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $37.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.14)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Russia capture Sofiivka by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...?

Volume$114.02K

Markets2

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POLYMARKET

Will Russia capture Sofiivka by May 31?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 27.5¢No 72.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Russia capture Sofiivka by May 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494433° N, 37.377320° E in Sofiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (htt

POLYMARKET

Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494433° N, 37.377320° E in Sofiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (ht

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/TIDGRL" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...?"></iframe>

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Will Russia capture Sofiivka by May 31?

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Events (1)

Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...?

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Will Russia capture Sofiivka by May 31?

Will Russia capture Sofiivka by May 31?

Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?

Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?

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Will Russia capture Sofiivka by May 31?

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