Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will SCOTUS rule for DHS on third-country deportations?

Total Volume

$1.95K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will SCOTUS rule for DHS on third-country deportations?

Vol

$1.95K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.95K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.95K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Department of Homeland Security in Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D.

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Department of Homeland Security in Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D.	Kalshi	71%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

71%

Top Probability

$1.95K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before 2028 If the Supreme Court, in Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D., rules that the district court’s classwide declaratory relief and vacatur of DHS’s third-country removal Guidance cannot stand, then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled, in Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D., that the district court’s February 25, 2026 classwide declaratory relief and its vacat

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will SCOTUS rule for DHS on third-country deportations?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2028

If the Supreme Court, in Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D., rules that the district court’s classwide declaratory relief and vacatur of DHS’s third-country removal Guidance cannot stand, then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled, in Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D., that the district court’s February 25, 2026 classwide declaratory relief and its vacat

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Supreme Court, in Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D., rules that the district court’s classwide declaratory relief and vacatur of DHS’s third-country removal Guidance cannot stand, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the E"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Department of Homeland Security in Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D.
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 1, 2028): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics