Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will SCOTUS overturn or narrow Stinson deference to federal sentencing-guideline commentary?

Total Volume

$1.32K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will SCOTUS overturn or narrow Stinson deference to federal sentencing-guideline commentary?

Vol

$1.32K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.32K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.32K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Kendrick Jarrell Beaird in Beaird v. United States

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Kendrick Jarrell Beaird in Beaird v. United States	Kalshi	68%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

68%

Top Probability

$1.32K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before 2028 If the Supreme Court, in Beaird v. United States, rules courts must independently interpret the Sentencing Guidelines or apply a narrower deference framework than Stinson when considering Guidelines commentary, then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled, in Beaird v. United States, that Stinson v. United States no longer correctly states the rule governing the deferenc

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will SCOTUS overturn or narrow Stinson deference to federal sentencing-guideline commentary?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2028

If the Supreme Court, in Beaird v. United States, rules courts must independently interpret the Sentencing Guidelines or apply a narrower deference framework than Stinson when considering Guidelines commentary, then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled, in Beaird v. United States, that Stinson v. United States no longer correctly states the rule governing the deferenc

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Supreme Court, in Beaird v. United States, rules courts must independently interpret the Sentencing Guidelines or apply a narrower deference framework than Stinson when considering Guidelines commentary, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Payout Criterion for the Contract e"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Kendrick Jarrell Beaird in Beaird v. United States
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 1, 2028): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 68.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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