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Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Which parties will be part of the next Government of Slovenia?

Name: Which parties will be part of the next Government of Slovenia?
End: 2026-03-22T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$214.11K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which parties will be part of the next Government of Slovenia?

Vol

$214.11K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $214.11K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $214.11K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Poly	95%
Will the Democrats (D) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Poly	92%
Will New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Poly	92%
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Poly	89%
Will Prerod – Party of Vladimir Prebilič (PVP) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Poly	35%
Will Our Country (ND) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Poly	9%
Will Resni.ca (Res) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Poly	8%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Poly	7%
Will the Social Democrats (SD) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Poly	7%
Will the Pirate Party of Slovenia (PPS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Poly	4%
Will Mi, socialisti! (Mi!) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Poly	3%
Will Vesna – Green Party (Vesna) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Poly	3%
Will The Left (Levica) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Poly	3%
Will the Party of Generations (SG) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Poly	3%
Will the Slovenian National Party (SNS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

95%

Top Probability

$214.11K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Slovenian government formed after the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following a successful vote of confidence in the Slovenian National Assembly (Državni zbor), with ministers sworn in under non-caret

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, August 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which parties will be part of the next Government of Slovenia?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 22, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Slovenian government formed after the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following a successful vote of confidence in the Slovenian National Assembly (Državni zbor), with ministers sworn in under non-caret

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Slovenian government formed after the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This m"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $214.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $88.9K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.41)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Social Democrats (SD) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 22, 2026): Vol $13.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.2% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Democrats (D) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 22, 2026): Vol $21.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 92.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will The Left (Levica) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 22, 2026): Vol $8.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Freedom Movement (GS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 22, 2026): Vol $46.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 22, 2026): Vol $9.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 91.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Resni.ca (Res) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 22, 2026): Vol $50.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Mi, socialisti! (Mi!) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 22, 2026): Vol $859
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Vesna – Green Party (Vesna) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 22, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the Slovenian National Party (SNS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 22, 2026): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the Pirate Party of Slovenia (PPS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 22, 2026): Vol $13.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 22, 2026): Vol $11.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 89.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Our Country (ND) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 22, 2026): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.7% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the Party of Generations (SG) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 22, 2026): Vol $950
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Prerod – Party of Vladimir Prebilič (PVP) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 22, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 22, 2026): Vol $26.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics