This contract is a Kalshi event asking about the highest temperature recorded in Austin for October 26, 2026. The rules tie the question to the maximum temperature recorded at Austin, CLIAUS, for that date, and the Yes outcome depends on whether that value falls in the relevant range according to The Weather Company [1]. The rules state that the official and final value is the maximum temperature as reported by The Weather Company, and they note that other forecasting or weather sites such as AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide a decision but do not determine the result [1]. The rules also describe how data is handled before settlement. Preliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value, so the rules advise caution when interpreting preliminary readings [1]. If the Exchange determines that the initial non-preliminary publication contains a material error, expiration may be held until a corrected revision is published or until the expiration date, whichever comes first [1]. The rules also say that a status of "Final" on weather.com or Kalshi is provided for convenience only and does not guarantee the data is error-free [1]. The contract's timing rules are set out in its terms. Trading closes at 11:59 PM local time on October 26, 2026, regardless of any data releases or events occurring at that time [1]. Expiration occurs at the sooner of the first 7:00 or 8:00 AM ET following the release of the October 26 data, or one week after October 26, 2026 [1]. These are rule dates, not announced event dates. If no data is available at the end of the set period, the rules say all markets resolve to the last fair price determined by Kalshi [1]. The event is divided into six temperature ranges. In the saved snapshot, observed at 18:00 UTC on October 25, 2026, the range for 83 to 84 degrees had a Yes price of 0.605, the 81 to 82 degree range had 0.21, the 85 to 86 degree range had 0.145, the below 81 degree range had 0.035, the 87 to 88 degree range had 0.015, and the above 88 degree range had 0.005 [1]. All six markets from this event are included in the sample. These prices are snapshots at one moment, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The Yes prices in this sample add up to slightly more than 1, so they should not be read as a calibrated probability distribution. Trading volume is also not a measure of liquidity or of how many people took part.

Historical Context

The supplied background on Austin describes the city rather than the weather record or this contract. It states that Austin is the capital of Texas and that it was incorporated on December 27, 1839 [2]. Nothing in the supplied sources describes past temperatures in Austin or the history of this market.

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