GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?

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Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?

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5 markets tracked

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2028?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	42%
Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Aug 1, 2027?	Kalshi	25%
Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Apr 1, 2027?	Kalshi	14%
Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Nov 3, 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Aug 1, 2026?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

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42%

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About This Event

John Fetterman leaving Democratic party If John Fetterman announces they are leaving party, or are no longer caucusing with them in the Senate, before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** John Fetterman leaving Democratic party

If John Fetterman announces they are leaving party, or are no longer caucusing with them in the Senate, before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If John Fetterman announces they are leaving party (or are no longer caucusing with them in the Senate) before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Aug 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Apr 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Nov 3, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Aug 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?

Volume$0.00

Markets5

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KALSHI

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 41.5¢No 58.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2028?

If John Fetterman announces they are leaving party (or are no longer caucusing with them in the Senate) before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Aug 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Aug 1, 2027?

If John Fetterman announces they are leaving party (or are no longer caucusing with them in the Senate) before Aug 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Apr 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.0¢No 86.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Apr 1, 2027?

If John Fetterman announces they are leaving party (or are no longer caucusing with them in the Senate) before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Nov 3, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Nov 3, 2026?

If John Fetterman announces they are leaving party (or are no longer caucusing with them in the Senate) before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Aug 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.0¢No 98.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Aug 1, 2026?

If John Fetterman announces they are leaving party (or are no longer caucusing with them in the Senate) before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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17¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/UA9JjZ" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?"></iframe>

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Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?

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Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2028?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?

Markets (5)

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2028?

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2028?

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Aug 1, 2027?

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Aug 1, 2027?

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Apr 1, 2027?

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Apr 1, 2027?

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Nov 3, 2026?

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Nov 3, 2026?

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Aug 1, 2026?

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Aug 1, 2026?

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Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2028?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2028?

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2028?

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Aug 1, 2027?

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Aug 1, 2027?

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Apr 1, 2027?

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Apr 1, 2027?

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Nov 3, 2026?

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Nov 3, 2026?

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Aug 1, 2026?

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Aug 1, 2026?

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