Which senators will back Schumer for Senate Democratic leader?

This contract asks whether a specific U.S. senator will publicly back Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader. The rules are tied to the Senate Democratic caucus vote on its leader for the 120th Congress, and the market resolves to Yes only if a qualifying backing route is confirmed by at least one Source Agency [1]. Each senator named in the event has a separate contract, so one senator's outcome does not determine another's. The contract defines backing as publicly stating that a senator supports Schumer or plans to vote for him as leader. Support conditioned only on Schumer remaining a candidate qualifies, but support subject to any other condition does not [1]. A senator can meet the test in one of two ways. The first is that backing Schumer is the senator's public position when the caucus votes. The second is that, by the end of the day after the vote, the senator says they voted for Schumer, including saying "aye" on a voice vote [1]. If Schumer is elected by acclamation without a vote, only the first route applies [1]. The rules also set several paths to No. A senator who votes against Schumer, abstains, or does not vote for him resolves to No [1]. A senator who had not publicly backed Schumer before the vote resolves to No if, by the end of the day after the vote, they only say they support him going forward or decline to say whether they supported him [1]. Once the day after the caucus elects its leader has ended, a senator who has met neither route resolves to No without waiting for the January 3, 2027 date in the contract title [1]. The senator's own account of their vote governs over earlier statements [1]. The contract also resolves to No if Schumer withdraws from the leadership election, or if the caucus does not elect its leader before January 3, 2027 [1]. Anyone who is not eligible to vote in the caucus as a senator or senator-elect resolves to No, including a candidate whose Senate race has not been called by then [1]. The market closes early if the event occurs, and it also closes early once the day after the caucus elects its leader has ended [1].

Historical Context

Wikipedia describes the Senate majority and minority leader positions as held by senators who serve as chief spokespersons for their parties, and says each is elected to the post by the senators of the party caucus, which for Democrats is the Senate Democratic Caucus [3]. According to the Schumer biography, he has led the Senate Democratic Caucus since 2017, served as majority leader from 2021 to 2025, and has been minority leader since 2025, after an earlier stint from 2017 to 2021 [2]. The same source notes that he was elected to a fifth Senate term in 2022 and became New York's senior senator in 2001 [2]. This background explains why the caucus vote for the 120th Congress is the event the contract measures, but the sources do not describe the state of the 2026 race beyond the contract rules.

Frequently Asked Questions