US gas prices this week
K 0 contracts
1
21
US gas prices this week
K 0 contracts
1
21
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 4.1600 at 50.5%.
Kalshi
- Above 4.160050.5%
- Above 4.140050.5%
- Above 4.120050.5%
- Above 4.100050.5%
- Above 4.240050%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 0 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
21
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
On Nov 2, 2026 If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than X on Nov 2, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event is titled "US gas prices this week." Its rule reads: "If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than X on Oct 26, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Each listed market applies a different threshold X, from $4.10 to $4.36 in this sample. The strict "greater than" wording means a price exactly equal to a threshold would not resolve Yes under this rule.
The rule names a specific date, Oct 26, 2026, and a specific data source, AAA. The market end timestamp in the saved data is 2026-11-02T14:00:00.000Z, which is a different date from the rule's Oct 26 reference [1]. The evidence does not explain this gap, and the source lists no end time for the event, so readers should check the contract's own settlement terms before relying on either date.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation time is 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-22T04:58:41.306Z [1]. These prices describe that observation, not live conditions at the moment you read this.
At the observation time, the quoted Yes prices fell as the threshold rose. Thresholds from $4.10 to $4.16 were quoted at 0.99, $4.18 and $4.14 at 0.985, and $4.20 at 0.955. The $4.22 threshold was at 0.74, $4.24 at 0.38, $4.26 at 0.11, $4.28 at 0.045, and $4.30 and $4.36 at 0.015 each. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be read as the chance that a given outcome occurs.
The sample is partial. The provider event has 21 markets, and 12 are included [1]. The included markets were chosen by highest Yes price first, then by volume. The evidence does not show the prices of the nine omitted markets, so it is not possible to describe them from this snapshot. Volume is also not a measure of liquidity or trader count, and this excerpt does not report trader numbers.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show why any price changed, whether the quoted levels will hold, or what AAA's figure will be on the reference date. It does not include any other gas price source, so these prices cannot be compared with other data. Because only one provider event is supplied, no cross-platform comparison is possible. Differences between contracts on different platforms, or between thresholds here, should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity without current, executable quotes and full settlement terms.
References
- Kalshi: US gas prices this week. Provider data observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 22, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract is a Kalshi event titled "US gas prices this week" [1]. Its rules state that if average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than a set threshold X on October 26, 2026, according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The contract therefore measures a single published average on a single date, not a weekly trend or a national monthly figure. Each market in the event uses a different threshold, so the contracts are separate questions about the same underlying average. The contract's listed end time in the saved market data is November 2, 2026 at 14:00 UTC [1]. That is a provider closing time. It is separate from the October 26, 2026 date written in the contract rules, which defines the date the average is measured against. The saved provider observation was taken at 00:00 UTC on October 22, 2026, and the record was retrieved later that day [1]. Any prices described below are therefore snapshots from that earlier observation, not live quotes. The background on gasoline pricing comes from a general reference article. It says that gasoline usage and pricing reflect crude oil prices, processing and distribution costs, local demand, currency strength, local taxation or subsidy, and local supply [2]. It also notes that because fuels are traded worldwide, trade prices tend to be similar, while the price consumers pay largely reflects national pricing policy and taxes [2]. This general explanation helps explain why retail gasoline averages move, but it does not describe the specific factors behind any price in this contract. The saved market sample shows Yes prices for thresholds from $4.12 to $4.36, with the highest Yes prices shown for the lower thresholds. At the $4.20 threshold the Yes outcome was priced at 0.955, at $4.22 at 0.74, at $4.24 at 0.38, at $4.26 at 0.11, and at $4.28 at 0.045 [1]. These are snapshot prices from the saved observation. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities that gas will reach a given level on October 26. The event has 21 markets in total, and 12 are included in the saved sample [1]. The sample was selected by ordering markets by Yes price, highest first, then by volume, so it does not show the full set of thresholds in the event. Some thresholds are therefore absent from this view, and the sample should not be treated as a complete ladder of outcomes.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the average regular gasoline price for the United States, as reported by AAA, is strictly above a stated threshold on October 26, 2026 [1]. Because resolution depends on one named source and one date, the price of each market reflects the market's view on that specific reading rather than on gas prices over the whole week. The general pricing factors in the background reference, including crude oil costs, taxes, and supply, are the kinds of forces that can move retail averages, but the sources supplied here do not link any of them to the contract's price levels [2].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-22 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for the Yes outcome to resolve?
The market resolves to Yes if average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than the stated threshold on October 26, 2026, according to AAA [1]. A value equal to the threshold does not meet the strictly greater rule [1].
Is the October 26 date the same as the market closing time?
No. The contract rules name October 26, 2026 as the measurement date [1]. The saved market data lists an end time of November 2, 2026 at 14:00 UTC [1], which is a provider closing time and not an announced event date.
Do the prices in this article show current gas prices?
No. The prices come from a saved provider snapshot observed at 00:00 UTC on October 22, 2026 [1]. They are not current quotes, and they do not represent the gas price on any later day.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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