Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Will U.S. GivingTuesday donations set a new record in 2026?

Total Volume

$0.00

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Will U.S. GivingTuesday donations set a new record in 2026?

Vol

$0.00

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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Price Spread

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max 0.0%

Arbitrage

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will U.S. GivingTuesday donations set a new record in 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will U.S. GivingTuesday donations set a new record in 2026?	Kalshi	85%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

85%

Top Probability

$0.00

Volume

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About This Event

Dec 1, 2026 If total U.S. giving breaks the all-time U.S. GivingTuesday donation record in the 2026 GivingTuesday (December 1, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes. The current record is $4.0 billion in U.S. donations, set on GivingTuesday 2025 (December 2, 2025). The measure is GivingTuesday's estimate of total dollars donated in the United States on GivingTuesday. Its first published U.S. total for December 1, 2026 must be higher, including when both totals round to the same figure but Givi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will U.S. GivingTuesday donations set a new record in 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Dec 1, 2026

If total U.S. giving breaks the all-time U.S. GivingTuesday donation record in the 2026 GivingTuesday (December 1, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes. The current record is $4.0 billion in U.S. donations, set on GivingTuesday 2025 (December 2, 2025). The measure is GivingTuesday's estimate of total dollars donated in the United States on GivingTuesday. Its first published U.S. total for December 1, 2026 must be higher, including when both totals round to the same figure but Givi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If total U.S. giving breaks the all-time U.S. GivingTuesday donation record in the 2026 GivingTuesday (December 1, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The current record is $4.0 billion in U.S. donations, set on GivingTuesday 2025 (December 2, 2025). The measure is GivingTuesday"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will U.S. GivingTuesday donations set a new record in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 85.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.0% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics