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Events
GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?

GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?
Vol

PM $564.2K · K 240.7K contracts

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Events

2

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Markets

9

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 29, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31 at 88.5%, and on Kalshi it is Before Dec 31, 2026 at 63.5%.

Polymarket

  1. December 3188.5%
  2. December 1574.5%
  3. November 3067.5%
  4. November 1523%
  5. October 315.5%

Kalshi

  1. Before Dec 31, 202663.5%
  2. Before Nov 13, 202632%
  3. Before Nov 6, 202613.5%
  4. Before Oct 30, 20265.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $564.2K · K 240.7K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

9

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketTech
When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released?

When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released?

PM $35.9K
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?Yes 19.5%
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 23 and November 29, 2026?Yes 15%
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 30 and December 6, 2026?Yes 13.5%
+12 moreNext deadline Nov 2, 2026 UTC
PolymarketKalshiTech
When will Anthropic release Claude 6?

When will Anthropic release Claude 6?

PM $61.4K · K 31.2K contracts

Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027?

Kalshi: Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 88.5%Rules differK Yes 89.5%

Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026?

Kalshi: Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 87.5%Rules differK Yes 21%

Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?

Kalshi: Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Jun 30, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 72.5%Rules differK Yes 65%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

7 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketKalshiTech
When will OpenAI release GPT-7?

When will OpenAI release GPT-7?

PM $23.7K · K 7.9K contracts

GPT-7 released by December 31, 2027?

Kalshi: Will OpenAI release GPT-7 before Jan 1, 2028?

Related contracts

PM Yes 86.5%Rules differK Yes 82.5%

GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027?

Kalshi: Will OpenAI release GPT-7 before Jun 1, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 49%Rules differK Yes 34.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

2 saved comparisonsNext deadline Mar 8, 2027 UTC
PolymarketTech
GPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Rank Debut?

GPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Rank Debut?

PM $14.2K
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?Yes 17.5%
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?Yes 11.5%
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?Yes 9%
+1 moreNext deadline Jul 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketTech
Gemini Carbon released on...?

Gemini Carbon released on...?

PM $10.2K
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 17, 2026?Yes 11.5%
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 25, 2026?Yes 10%
Will there be no Gemini Carbon release by November 30, 2026?Yes 9.5%
+29 moreNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketTech
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

PM $9.2K
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on November 3, 2026?Yes 21.5%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on November 10, 2026?Yes 14%
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by November 30, 2026?Yes 11%
+29 moreNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Same-question pairs

0

No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.