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Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

Name: Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
End: 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$8.83K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

Vol

$8.83K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $8.83K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $8.83K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Poly	92%
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Poly	90%
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Poly	47%
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	Poly	37%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

92%

Top Probability

$8.83K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-5.1, claude-opus-5.5-thinking, clau

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-5.1, claude-opus-5.5-thinking, clau

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $8.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.7K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.06)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 92.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $983
  DATA: [Yes: 90.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech