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Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?

Yes89%-1.0%

Vol$1.00K

Outcomes2

89%

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MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?

Part of: Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

YesYes Price

89¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$1.00K

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Dec 31, 2026

in 4 months

Trade on Polymarket

Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?

Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?

Yes

89¢

|

Vol

$1.00K

|

Outcomes

2

Yes88.5¢

No11.5¢

Price History

Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

116 Days Left

December 31, 2026 • 11:59 PM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

December 31, 2026

11:59 PM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-5.1, claude-opus-5.5-thinking, claude-opus-6-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, Mythos, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify. The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.