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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?

Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
Vol

PM $208.9K

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Events

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Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, Yes is priced at 78.5% on Polymarket.

Polymarket

  1. Yes78.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $208.9K

Reported volume · provider units

1

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the public valuation of Anthropic surpasses the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For Bitcoin, CoinGecko's data for BTC will be used, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin. If CoinGecko stops showing relevant data, data from CoinMarketCap will be used instead. For Anthropic, any public valuation, or private funding round that values the company will be considered. To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by Anthropic or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. The resolution source will CoinGecko and Anthropic's official communications; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiTech
Best LLM at the end of the decade?

Best LLM at the end of the decade?

PM $6.86M · K 16.76M contracts

Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?

Kalshi: Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Anthropic)

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Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

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Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

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Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

83 saved comparisonsNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC
PolymarketKalshiTech
When will Anthropic release Claude 6?

When will Anthropic release Claude 6?

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Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026?

Kalshi: Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2026?

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PM Yes 93%Rules differK Yes 21.5%

Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027?

Kalshi: Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2027?

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PM Yes 87.5%Rules differK Yes 89.5%

Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?

Kalshi: Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Jun 30, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 70.5%Rules differK Yes 65%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

7 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketTech
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

PM $224.2K
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Yes 75.5%
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+11 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketTech
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?

Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?

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Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?Yes 19.5%
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?Yes 16.5%
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Yes 9.5%
3 mktsNext deadline Jan 1, 2028 UTC
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Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?

Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?

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Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Russia by December 31?Yes 5%
+7 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketKalshiTech
Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...?

Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...?

PM $86.1K · K 18.9K contracts

Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Kalshi: Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution before Jan 1, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 11%Rules differK Yes 15.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

1 saved comparisonNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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