Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by...?
PM $7.1K · K 4.1K contracts
2
5
Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by...?
PM $7.1K · K 4.1K contracts
2
5
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Oct 30, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, December 31, 2027 is priced at 83% on Polymarket and 77.5% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027Same question, fine print differs | 83% | 77.5% | 5.5 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $7.1K · K 4.1K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
5
Saved contracts
1
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rockstar Games officially releases a PC version of Grand Theft Auto VI (available for purchase or download on PC, including via the Rockstar Games Launcher, Steam, or Epic Games Store) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. A "PC version" refers to a full commercial release of the game for Windows PC. Beta versions, early access, technical tests, or leaked/unofficial builds will not qualify for resolution. This market will resolve immediately if the PC version is released by the expiry date. If no PC version is released by the specified date, this market will resolve to "No".
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T21:00:06.045Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks whether Rockstar Games will officially release a PC version of Grand Theft Auto VI by a listed date. According to the rules excerpt, a qualifying release must be "a full commercial release of the game for Windows PC," and "Beta versions, early access, technical tests, or leaked/unofficial builds will not qualify for resolution" [1]. The rules also say the market "will resolve immediately if the PC version is released by the expiry date," and resolves "No" if no release occurs by the specified date [1].
The saved event contains two binary markets with the same wording apart from the deadline. One asks about release by December 31, 2027, with a listed end time of 2028-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. The other asks about release by June 30, 2027, with a listed end time of 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z [1]. These listed times correspond to 11:59 PM ET on the stated dates, as the rules describe. Because the deadlines differ, the two contracts are not measuring the same outcome, and their prices should not be compared as if they were.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these markets at 2026-10-19T21:00:06.045Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-20T00:02:40.201Z [1]. These are historical snapshot times, not live prices.
For the December 31, 2027 contract, the saved Yes price is 0.87 and the No price is 0.13. For the June 30, 2027 contract, the saved Yes price is 0.685 and the No price is 0.315 [1]. Within each contract, the two saved outcome prices sum to 1.00, so each pair reflects a single binary question. These are provider-reported prices, not executable quotes, and they do not establish verified probabilities. The record does not include volume or liquidity figures, so it cannot show how deep either market is.
What remains uncertain
The sample covers both saved markets for this provider event, and the record states that it is not partial [1]. However, the source also warns that the providers may not list every possible real-world outcome, so this should not be read as a complete field of outcomes [1].
The evidence does not explain why either price is where it is, and it contains no information about recent announcements, official schedules, or other developments affecting release timing. The status of both markets is recorded as active at observation time, and the evidence does not show how either will resolve. Readers should check the current provider page and the full rules before drawing conclusions.
References
- Polymarket: Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T21:00:06.045Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 20, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event asking whether Rockstar Games will release a PC version of Grand Theft Auto VI by a set deadline. The event's contract rules say it resolves to Yes if Rockstar Games officially releases a PC version of the game, meaning it is available for purchase or download on PC, including through the Rockstar Games Launcher, Steam, or Epic Games Store, by the listed date at 11:59 PM ET [1]. The rules say a full commercial release for Windows PC is required. Beta versions, early access, technical tests, and leaked or unofficial builds do not qualify [1]. If no qualifying PC version is released by the specified date, the market resolves to No [1]. The event is organized around deadlines rather than a single date. The saved contracts in this entry ask about release by June 30, 2027 and by December 31, 2027 [1]. The contract rules list an end time for the event, but a date in contract rules is a resolution deadline, not an announced release date. Nothing in the supplied sources states when Rockstar plans to release any version of the game, and this article does not estimate one. Because each contract resolves on its own deadline, a contract with an earlier cutoff can resolve No while a later one is still open. Readers should check each contract's own end time and wording before comparing them.
Historical Context
Rockstar Games was established under Take-Two Interactive in 1998 and is best known for the Grand Theft Auto series [2]. The company's proprietary RAGE engine debuted with Rockstar Games Presents Table Tennis in 2006, released for the Xbox 360 and Wii. According to its source, the engine has since been used by Rockstar's internal studios to develop open world games for computers and consoles [3]. This history describes past releases and tools only. The supplied sources do not describe the development status of Grand Theft Auto VI or any planned PC release.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Rockstar Games officially makes a full commercial Windows PC version of Grand Theft Auto VI available by a stated deadline [1]. The wording is narrow. Platform availability through the launcher or a major storefront counts, but betas, early access, technical tests, and leaked builds do not [1]. Traders are therefore pricing the chance of a qualifying official release by a specific date, not general interest in the game. The contract's prices reflect market sentiment at the time they were recorded and are not verified probabilities.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as a PC version for this contract?
A PC version means a full commercial release of the game for Windows PC that is available for purchase or download, including through the Rockstar Games Launcher, Steam, or Epic Games Store [1].
Do beta or early access versions resolve the contract?
No. The contract rules state that beta versions, early access, technical tests, and leaked or unofficial builds will not qualify for resolution [1].
What happens if no PC version is released by the deadline?
The contract resolves to No if no PC version is released by the specified date [1].
Why do the contracts have different dates?
The event includes contracts with different deadlines, such as June 30, 2027 and December 31, 2027 [1]. Each contract has its own end time, so the outcome of one does not determine the other.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
1
Same-question pairs
1
Largest saved gap: 5.5 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
