NE-03 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $66.5K · K 7.6K contracts
3
14
NE-03 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $66.5K · K 7.6K contracts
3
14
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Nov 3, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, Adrian Smith is priced at 98.7% on Polymarket and 98.6% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian SmithSame question, fine print differs | 98.7% | 98.6% | 0.0 pts |
| Becky StilleSame question, fine print differs | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.0 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $66.5K · K 7.6K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
14
Saved contracts
2
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 3, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 NE-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NE-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T03:00:06.023Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event, "NE-03 House Election Margin of Victory," resolves on the difference between the top two candidates' shares of valid votes in the 2026 NE-03 House election. The rules define the margin as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Independent candidates do not count as options for either party [1]. If a reported value falls exactly on a boundary, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
The rules say the market "will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official" [1]. They also state that if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. That date is a rule deadline, not an announced event date. The rules describe the election as one that "is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-25T03:00:06.023Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-25T04:05:46.103Z [1]. These values describe saved provider data at that observation time. They are not live quotes, executable prices, or verified probabilities. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1].
Each bracket is a separate Yes/No contract. The Yes prices in this snapshot are: 45 to 50 percent, 0.255; 40 to 45 percent, 0.245; 50 to 55 percent, 0.1795; 55 to 60 percent, 0.1215; 25 to 35 percent, 0.1055; 35 to 40 percent, 0.092; 0 to 25 percent, 0.0345; 60 to 65 percent, 0.0185; 65 percent or more, 0.0065; and a Democratic Party candidate win, 0.0045 [1]. These figures should not be added together or averaged into a single estimate.
The market coverage shows 10 of 10 saved markets, with no partial sample [1]. That covers this saved event only. The sample warning states that it "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1].
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show what has happened since the observation time, so these prices should not be treated as current. It contains no volume, liquidity, or trader counts, so it cannot show how deep the market is or how many people hold each view. No reasons for price movements are provided. Because only one provider appears here, no cross-platform comparison is possible. Differences in wording, end times, or resolution rules would need separate review before any comparison.
References
- Polymarket: NE-03 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T03:00:06.023Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract is tied to the 2026 U.S. House election in Nebraska's 3rd congressional district. The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][2]. The contract does not ask which party wins. It asks how large the gap is between the top two candidates, measured in percentage points of valid votes [1]. The margin is the difference between the percentage of valid votes received by the first-place candidate and the percentage received by the second-place candidate. Each percentage is that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the election [1]. Under the rules, a candidate nominated by the Democratic Party is the "Democrat" option and a candidate nominated by the Republican Party is the "Republican" option. Independent candidates do not count as either option [1]. The contract names candidates only for convenience. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1]. The saved event contains a set of brackets. Some ask whether the Republican candidate will win by a given margin range, such as 0% to 25%, 25% to 35%, or 65% or more. Others ask whether the Democratic candidate will win the election outright [1]. Each bracket is a separate yes or no contract. Traders should read the bracket wording closely, because the margin brackets and the outright winner question measure different things. The rules also set several resolution details. If a reported value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, the rules use ballot-listed last names in alphabetical order to choose the bracket, with specific handling when an unlisted candidate is involved. If two or more unlisted candidates tie, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. Resolution is based on the official vote count once it is certified. If a recount starts before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount finishes and the vote is made official [1]. The primary resolution source is the official 2026 results published by the state electoral authority that certifies the election. Credible reporting with overwhelming consensus may also be used [1]. The listed end time for the contract is 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. That is the contract's listed closing time. It is not a report that results have been announced. The rules also say that if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Historical Context
The source material on this contract is limited to the rules and a general Wikipedia overview of Nebraska's 2026 House elections. That overview states that the elections will elect the state's three U.S. representatives, one from each congressional district, and that primary elections took place on May 12, 2026 [2]. This is a historical fact about the primaries, not a result for the November contest. A separate Wikipedia page describes the 2024 presidential election in Nebraska, which took place on November 5, 2024, with Nebraska holding five electoral votes [3]. That page concerns a different election and does not provide results or context for the 3rd district House race.
Why It Matters
The contract measures competitiveness in a specific district rather than control of the House as a whole. Because it uses the gap between the top two candidates' shares of valid votes, it asks how decisive the result is, not simply which party wins [1]. Brackets divide the possible margins into ranges, so each range is a separate question about the final official count. Traders who want to understand the contract should focus on the wording of the margin definition, the treatment of independents, the replacement-nominee rule, and the tie and boundary rules [1]. Those details can decide how a result is classified even when the vote totals are close.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1].
Do independent candidates count as options in this contract?
No. The rules say that independent candidates do not represent options for either party. Only candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the Democrat and Republican options [1].
What happens if a named candidate is replaced before election day?
The contract name is updated, and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee of the party [1].
What happens if a result falls exactly between two margin brackets?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
What happens if the election results are not known by June 30, 2027?
The market resolves to "Other" if the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1].
When is the contract's listed end time, and does it mean results are known?
The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. This is the listed closing time for the contract. It does not show that results have been announced, and the election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][2].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
2
Largest saved gap: 0.0 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
