Snapshot observed 2026-11-12T12:00:06.010Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The Kalshi event asks who will win the 2028 New Hampshire Republican presidential nominating contest. Each market is a Yes or No contract on one named candidate. According to the rules, "If X wins the 2028 New Hampshire Republican presidential nominating contest, then the market resolves to Yes." The rules also state that the market "resolves on the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Republican national convention delegates from New Hampshire," and that "The winner is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting" [1].

Two wording details matter for comparison. First, "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options "are not candidates." Second, if the contest "is not held before Nov 7, 2028, or reports no statewide vote count, every market resolves to No" [1]. The listed market end dates of 2028-11-07 come from the saved market data and mirror this rule. They are not an announced election date [1].

Reading the snapshot

The market data was observed at 2026-11-12T12:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-11-12T14:21:52Z, so these prices describe that earlier observation, not live conditions. The saved Yes prices were: Vance 0.37, Rubio 0.225, DeSantis 0.115, Carlson 0.0495, and Massie 0.0395 [1]. Each figure is a separate contract's price snapshot. These are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.

All five saved markets are included, and the sample is marked as not partial. The sample warning, however, states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Readers should not assume that the five names are the complete field, and they should not treat the Yes prices as a set that must sum to any particular total.

The listed volume data was not included in the supplied evidence, so no statement about trading activity or liquidity can be made from it.

What remains uncertain

The supplied evidence does not give a listed end time for the event, and it does not explain why any price has moved. It also does not include any results from the New Hampshire contest or any statement about whether it has been scheduled. Because the snapshot is from an earlier time, current prices may differ. Different prices across contracts should not be read as an arbitrage opportunity without current, executable quotes and a full review of each contract's terms.

References

1. Kalshi: New Hampshire Republican presidential primary winner?. Provider data observed 2026-11-12T12:00:06.010Z.