Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will New Hampshire schedule its 2028 presidential primary before South Carolina?

Total Volume

$3.02K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will New Hampshire schedule its 2028 presidential primary before South Carolina?

Vol

$3.02K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $3.02K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.02K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will it be reported by New Hampshire Secretary of State that the New Hampshire secretary of state announces a specific date for the 2028 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary that precedes the currently scheduled date for the South Carolina presidential primary before Jan 22, 2028?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will it be reported by New Hampshire Secretary of State that the New Hampshire secretary of state announces a specific date for the 2028 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary that precedes the currently scheduled date for the South Carolina presidential primary before Jan 22, 2028?	Kalshi	89%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

89%

Top Probability

$3.02K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Jan 22, 2028 If the New Hampshire secretary of state announces a specific date for the 2028 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary that precedes the currently scheduled date for the South Carolina presidential primary after Issuance and before Jan 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from New Hampshire Secretary of State qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republish

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will New Hampshire schedule its 2028 presidential primary before South Carolina?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 22, 2028

If the New Hampshire secretary of state announces a specific date for the 2028 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary that precedes the currently scheduled date for the South Carolina presidential primary  after Issuance and before Jan 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from New Hampshire Secretary of State qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republish

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the New Hampshire secretary of state announces a specific date for the 2028 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary that precedes the currently scheduled date for the South Carolina presidential primary  after Issuance and before Jan 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rule"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will it be reported by New Hampshire Secretary of State that the New Hampshire secretary of state announces a specific date for the 2028 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary that precedes the currently scheduled date for the South Carolina presidential primary before Jan 22, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 29, 2028): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 88.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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