Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 9:10 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will Pennsylvania formally begin leaving PJM?

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$164.62

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Will Pennsylvania formally begin leaving PJM?

Vol

$164.62

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Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Pennsylvania formally initiates or completes a statewide withdrawal from PJM through binding governmental action directing implementation or coordinated filings by the affected Pennsylvania electric utilities to remove all or substantially all Pennsylvania retail load and associated transmission operations from PJM’s regional operational and wholesale-market footprint before Jul 1, 2027?

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Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Pennsylvania formally initiates or completes a statewide withdrawal from PJM through binding governmental action directing implementation or coordinated filings by the affected Pennsylvania electric utilities to remove all or substantially all Pennsylvania retail load and associated transmission operations from PJM’s regional operational and wholesale-market footprint before Jul 1, 2027?	Kalshi	45%
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Pennsylvania formally initiates or completes a statewide withdrawal from PJM through binding governmental action directing implementation or coordinated filings by the affected Pennsylvania electric utilities to remove all or substantially all Pennsylvania retail load and associated transmission operations from PJM’s regional operational and wholesale-market footprint before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	25%

AI Analysis

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45%

Top Probability

$164.62

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About This Event

Pennsylvania formally initiates or completes a statewide withdrawal from PJM through binding governmental action directing implementation or coordinated filings by the affected Pennsylvania electric utilities to remove all or substantially all Pennsylvania retail load and associated transmission operations from PJM’s regional operational and wholesale-market footprint If Pennsylvania formally initiates or completes a statewide withdrawal from PJM through binding governmental action directing im

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Pennsylvania formally begin leaving PJM?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Pennsylvania formally initiates or completes a statewide withdrawal from PJM through binding governmental action directing implementation or coordinated filings by the affected Pennsylvania electric utilities to remove all or substantially all Pennsylvania retail load and associated transmission operations from PJM’s regional operational and wholesale-market footprint

If Pennsylvania formally initiates or completes a statewide withdrawal from PJM through binding governmental action directing im

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $165
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Pennsylvania formally initiates or completes a statewide withdrawal from PJM through binding governmental action directing implementation or coordinated filings by the affected Pennsylvania electric utilities to remove all or substantially all Pennsylvania retail load and associated transmission operations from PJM’s regional operational and wholesale-market footprint before Jul 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Pennsylvania formally initiates or completes a statewide withdrawal from PJM through binding governmental action directing implementation or coordinated filings by the affected Pennsylvania electric utilities to remove all or substantially all Pennsylvania retail load and associated transmission operations from PJM’s regional operational and wholesale-market footprint before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $165
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Will Pennsylvania formally begin leaving PJM?

Volume$164.62

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KALSHI

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Pennsylvania formally initiates or completes a statewide withdrawal from PJM through binding governmental action directing implementation or coordinated filings by the affected Pennsylvania electric utilities to remove all or substantially all Pennsylvania retail load and associated transmission operations from PJM’s regional operational and wholesale-market footprint before Jul 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 44.5¢No 55.5¢

KALSHITech

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Pennsylvania formally initiates or completes a statewide withdrawal from PJM through binding governmental action directing implementation or coordinated filings by the affected Pennsylvania electric utilities to remove all or substantially all Pennsylvania retail load and associated transmission operations from PJM’s regional operational and wholesale-market footprint before Jul 1, 2027?

If Pennsylvania formally initiates or completes a statewide withdrawal from PJM through binding governmental action directing implementation or coordinated filings by the affected Pennsylvania electric utilities to remove all or substantially all Pennsylvania retail load and associated transmission

KALSHI

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Pennsylvania formally initiates or completes a statewide withdrawal from PJM through binding governmental action directing implementation or coordinated filings by the affected Pennsylvania electric utilities to remove all or substantially all Pennsylvania retail load and associated transmission operations from PJM’s regional operational and wholesale-market footprint before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢

KALSHITech

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Pennsylvania formally initiates or completes a statewide withdrawal from PJM through binding governmental action directing implementation or coordinated filings by the affected Pennsylvania electric utilities to remove all or substantially all Pennsylvania retail load and associated transmission operations from PJM’s regional operational and wholesale-market footprint before Jan 1, 2027?

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Next Market Deadline

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Jan 08, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC

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Will Pennsylvania formally begin leaving PJM?

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Will Pennsylvania formally begin leaving PJM?

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