Market snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIMentions

What will Trump say in November?

Reported volume

K 52.6K contracts

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

What will Trump say in November?

Vol

K 52.6K contracts

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Current odds

Snapshot from Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

As of Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is UFC at 99.5%.

Kalshi

UFC99.5%
Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac99.5%
Eli Lilly99.5%
E1599.5%
Dividend / Stimulus99.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

Price ChartContract price history

21 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Trump say "UFC" before Dec 1, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(21)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump say "UFC" before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	99.5%
Will Trump say "Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac" before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	99.5%
Will Trump say "Eli Lilly" before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	99.5%
Will Trump say "E15" before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	99.5%
Will Trump say "Dividend / Stimulus" before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	99.5%
Will Trump say "Filibuster" before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	99.0%
Will Trump say "Aluminum" before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	85.0%
Will Trump say "Nvidia" before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	77.5%
Will Trump say "Zohran / Mamdani" before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	68.0%
Will Trump say "Rare Earth" before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	65.5%
Will Trump say "Autism" before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	52.0%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	49.5%
Will Trump say "Whistleblower" before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	48.5%
Will Trump say "Refinance / Refinanced / Refinancing" before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	46.5%
Will Trump say "Ozempic / GLP-1" before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	43.5%
Will Trump say "TrumpRx" before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	40.0%
Will Trump say "SMR / Small Modular Reactor" before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	36.5%
Will Trump say "Manufactured Housing" before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	32.0%
Will Trump say "Golden Dome" before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	25.5%
Will Trump say "Stablecoin" before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	23.5%
Will Trump say "Peptide" before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	16.0%

Rules & Resolution

Saved matching review

Needs review: no direct pair assessment is available.

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 52.6K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

About This Event

Before Dec 1, 2026 If X / Y or a plural or possessive form Z / Y is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Payout criteria The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts, Twitter/Truth Social. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. Doesn't count for payout Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. Grammatical/tense inflections. This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: What will Trump say in November?
Source snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): K 52.6K contracts
Coverage: 21 of 21 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will Trump say "Zohran / Mamdani" before Dec 1, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26DEC01-ZOHR; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaymonth-26dec01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 924.4 contracts
Outcome Yes: 68.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 32.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Zohran / Mamdani, or a plural or possessive form of Zohran / Mamdani, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Payout criteria
The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
 Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. 
 Grammatical/tense inflections. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.

Contract: Will Trump say "Whistleblower" before Dec 1, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26DEC01-WHIS; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaymonth-26dec01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 273.57 contracts
Outcome Yes: 48.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 51.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Whistleblower, or a plural or possessive form of Whistleblower, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Payout criteria
The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
 Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. 
 Grammatical/tense inflections. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.

Contract: Will Trump say "UFC" before Dec 1, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26DEC01-UFC; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaymonth-26dec01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 4.6K contracts
Outcome Yes: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If UFC, or a plural or possessive form of UFC, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Payout criteria
The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
 Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. 
 Grammatical/tense inflections. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.

Contract: Will Trump say "TrumpRx" before Dec 1, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26DEC01-TRUM; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaymonth-26dec01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 191.79 contracts
Outcome Yes: 40.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 60.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If TrumpRx, or a plural or possessive form of TrumpRx, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Payout criteria
The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
 Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. 
 Grammatical/tense inflections. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.

Contract: Will Trump say "Stablecoin" before Dec 1, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26DEC01-STAB; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaymonth-26dec01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 94.57 contracts
Outcome Yes: 23.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 76.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Stablecoin, or a plural or possessive form of Stablecoin, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Payout criteria
The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
 Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. 
 Grammatical/tense inflections. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.

Contract: Will Trump say "SMR / Small Modular Reactor" before Dec 1, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26DEC01-SMR; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaymonth-26dec01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 328.53 contracts
Outcome Yes: 36.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 63.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If SMR / Small Modular Reactor, or a plural or possessive form of SMR / Small Modular Reactor, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Payout criteria
The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
 Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. 
 Grammatical/tense inflections. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.

Contract: Will Trump say "Refinance / Refinanced / Refinancing" before Dec 1, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26DEC01-REFI; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaymonth-26dec01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 344.14 contracts
Outcome Yes: 46.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 53.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Refinance / Refinanced / Refinancing, or a plural or possessive form of Refinance / Refinanced / Refinancing, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Payout criteria
The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
 Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. 
 Grammatical/tense inflections. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.

Contract: Will Trump say "Rare Earth" before Dec 1, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26DEC01-RARE; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaymonth-26dec01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 416.06 contracts
Outcome Yes: 65.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 34.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Rare Earth, or a plural or possessive form of Rare Earth, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Payout criteria
The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
 Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. 
 Grammatical/tense inflections. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.

Contract: Will Trump say "Peptide" before Dec 1, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26DEC01-PEPT; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaymonth-26dec01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 866.82 contracts
Outcome Yes: 16.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 84.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Peptide, or a plural or possessive form of Peptide, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Payout criteria
The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
 Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. 
 Grammatical/tense inflections. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.

Contract: Will Trump say "Ozempic / GLP-1" before Dec 1, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26DEC01-OZEM; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaymonth-26dec01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 419.49 contracts
Outcome Yes: 43.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 56.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Ozempic / GLP-1, or a plural or possessive form of Ozempic / GLP-1, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Payout criteria
The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
 Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. 
 Grammatical/tense inflections. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.

Contract: Will Trump say "Nvidia" before Dec 1, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26DEC01-NVID; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaymonth-26dec01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 700.85 contracts
Outcome Yes: 77.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 22.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Nvidia, or a plural or possessive form of Nvidia, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Payout criteria
The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
 Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. 
 Grammatical/tense inflections. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.

Contract: Will Trump say "Manufactured Housing" before Dec 1, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26DEC01-MANU; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaymonth-26dec01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 215.06 contracts
Outcome Yes: 32.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 68.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Manufactured Housing, or a plural or possessive form of Manufactured Housing, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Payout criteria
The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
 Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. 
 Grammatical/tense inflections. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.

Contract: Will Trump say "Golden Dome" before Dec 1, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26DEC01-GOLD; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaymonth-26dec01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 626.18 contracts
Outcome Yes: 25.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 74.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Golden Dome, or a plural or possessive form of Golden Dome, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Payout criteria
The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
 Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. 
 Grammatical/tense inflections. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.

Contract: Will Trump say "Filibuster" before Dec 1, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26DEC01-FILI; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaymonth-26dec01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 3.1K contracts
Outcome Yes: 99.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 1.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Filibuster, or a plural or possessive form of Filibuster, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Payout criteria
The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
 Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. 
 Grammatical/tense inflections. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.

Contract: Will Trump say "Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac" before Dec 1, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26DEC01-FANN; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaymonth-26dec01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 12.2K contracts
Outcome Yes: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac, or a plural or possessive form of Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Payout criteria
The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
 Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. 
 Grammatical/tense inflections. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.

Contract: Will Trump say "Eli Lilly" before Dec 1, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26DEC01-ELIL; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaymonth-26dec01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 2.9K contracts
Outcome Yes: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Eli Lilly, or a plural or possessive form of Eli Lilly, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Payout criteria
The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
 Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. 
 Grammatical/tense inflections. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.

Contract: Will Trump say "E15" before Dec 1, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26DEC01-E15; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaymonth-26dec01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 8.8K contracts
Outcome Yes: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If E15, or a plural or possessive form of E15, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Payout criteria
The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
 Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. 
 Grammatical/tense inflections. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.

Contract: Will Trump say "Dividend / Stimulus" before Dec 1, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26DEC01-DIVI; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaymonth-26dec01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 14.6K contracts
Outcome Yes: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Dividend / Stimulus, or a plural or possessive form of Dividend / Stimulus, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Payout criteria
The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
 Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. 
 Grammatical/tense inflections. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.

Contract: Will Trump say "Ceasefire" before Dec 1, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26DEC01-CEAS; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaymonth-26dec01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 385.37 contracts
Outcome Yes: 49.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Ceasefire, or a plural or possessive form of Ceasefire, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Payout criteria
The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
 Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. 
 Grammatical/tense inflections. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.

Contract: Will Trump say "Autism" before Dec 1, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26DEC01-AUTI; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaymonth-26dec01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 443.19 contracts
Outcome Yes: 52.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 48.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Autism, or a plural or possessive form of Autism, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Payout criteria
The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
 Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. 
 Grammatical/tense inflections. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.

Contract: Will Trump say "Aluminum" before Dec 1, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26DEC01-ALUM; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpsaymonth-26dec01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 109.39 contracts
Outcome Yes: 85.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 15.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Aluminum, or a plural or possessive form of Aluminum, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Payout criteria
The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
 Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. 
 Grammatical/tense inflections. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.

Saved cross-platform review:
No exact pair with two valid binary Yes prices is available for comparison.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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