What countries will Trump say in November?
K 2.9K contracts
1
29
What countries will Trump say in November?
K 2.9K contracts
1
29
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is UAE / United Arab Emirates at 98.5%.
Kalshi
- UAE / United Arab Emirates98.5%
- United Kingdom / British93.5%
- Cuba / Cuban93%
- Qatar / Qatari92.5%
- Turkey / Turkish91.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 2.9K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
29
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Before Dec 1, 2026 If X / Y or a plural or possessive form Z / Y is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Payout criteria The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts, Twitter/Truth Social. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. Doesn't count for payout Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. Grammatical/tense inflections. This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-06T06:00:06.516Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event, "What countries will Trump say in November?", contains separate markets asking whether a specific country word or phrase will be said before a deadline. For example, one market asks whether Trump will say "Poland / Polish" before Dec 1, 2026 [1]. The rule text states that "If X / Y or a plural or possessive form Z / Y is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes" [1].
Qualifying statements include "public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts, Twitter/Truth Social" [1]. The rules say that "Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count" [1]. They also say the market "will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump" [1].
The event title refers to November, but the rule text sets the deadline as before Dec 1, 2026 [1]. Readers should rely on the rule text for the window.
Reading the snapshot
The data was observed at 2026-11-06T06:00:06.516Z and retrieved at 2026-11-06T08:59:43.904Z [1]. It records those moments and should not be read as live. Prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
In this sample, Yes prices range from 0.845 to 0.91 [1]. "Poland / Polish" and "Turkey / Turkish" are each listed at Yes 0.91 and No 0.09 [1]. "Taiwan / Taiwanese" has the lowest Yes price shown, at 0.845 [1].
The sample is partial: 12 of 29 markets are included [1]. Markets were ordered by Yes price, descending, so omitted markets should not be assumed to have lower prices. Each market is a separate contract with its own wording, so differences between them do not show that one is mispriced.
The listed market end time is 2026-12-01T15:00:00.000Z [1]. The rule text cites 12:00am ET, and the excerpt says the "Listed end time: not supplied." Readers should check the official rules directly.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, how many traders are involved, or how liquid these markets are. Volume is not a measure of liquidity or trader count. The evidence also does not show whether any listed word will be said, and it contains no information about events after the snapshot.
References
- Kalshi: What countries will Trump say in November?. Provider data observed 2026-11-06T06:00:06.516Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 6, 2026 UTCOverview
This Kalshi event asks which countries Donald Trump will say during November 2026 [1]. Its title is What countries will Trump say in November?, and it is grouped under the Mentions category [1]. Each market in the event asks whether one country name, such as Poland / Polish or Turkey / Turkish, will be stated by Trump before December 1, 2026 [1]. Under the contract rules, a market resolves to Yes if the specified word or phrase is stated by Trump before December 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET [1]. A plural or possessive form also counts, and for slash phrases either word satisfies the criterion [1]. Qualifying statements include public statements, direct quotes published by source agencies, and written public statements on his personal social media accounts, including Twitter and Truth Social [1]. Official acts, such as executive orders or bills signed, do not count [1]. The rules also state that a market will close and expire early once its word or phrase is stated [1]. The provider lists the event as active [1]. The saved market records carry a stored end date of December 1, 2026 at 15:00 UTC, which differs from the 12:00am ET cutoff written in the contract rules [1]. Readers should check the contract rules and the provider's current listing for the exact timing. In the snapshot observed on November 6, 2026 at 06:00 UTC, the sample includes 12 of the 29 markets in this event [1]. Within that sample, Poland / Polish and Turkey / Turkish both show a Yes price of 0.91, and Colombia / Colombian shows 0.895 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The sample is ordered by Yes price, so the markets not shown are not represented here and no conclusion should be drawn about them.
Historical Context
Background sources describe Trump's second presidency as beginning with his inauguration as the 47th president on January 20, 2025 [2]. The same source notes that he previously served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021 [2]. A separate background source describes steep tariffs enacted during the second term that affected nearly all imported goods, with the overall average effective tariff rate reported at 12.1% as of July 21, 2026 [3]. These entries explain the broader policy setting but do not establish which countries Trump will mention in November 2026.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a specific country name, or its plural or possessive form, appears in qualifying public statements by Trump before the deadline [1]. Because each market covers a different country term within the same event, the prices show how the market currently values each individual term rather than a single combined outcome [1]. Prices are snapshots, and volume is not a measure of liquidity or the number of traders, so the list should be read as an observation of one moment rather than a forecast [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-06 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Do executive orders or signed bills count toward a Yes resolution?
No. The contract states that official acts such as executive orders or bills signed do not count for payout [1].
Does a plural or possessive form of a country name count?
Yes. The contract states that the exact phrase, or a plural or possessive form of it, must be used [1].
What happens with slash phrases such as Poland / Polish?
For phrases with slashes, either word satisfies the criterion [1].
Can the market close before December 1, 2026?
Yes. The contract states that the market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
What will Trump say during 60 Minutes?
K 185.8K contracts
What will Trump say in November?
PM $6.7K
What will Trump say this week? (November 2 - November 8)
PM $17.5K
What companies will Trump say in November?
K 34.5K contracts
What will Trump say in November?
K 52.6K contracts
What will JD Vance say during NYT DealBook Summit?
K 16.1K contractsMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
