Kash Patel out as FBI Director?
PM $1.81M · K 151.2K contracts
3
10
Kash Patel out as FBI Director?
PM $1.81M · K 151.2K contracts
3
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 5, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31 at 17%, and on Kalshi it is Before Jan 1, 2029 at 86%.
Polymarket
- December 3117%
Kalshi
- Before Jan 1, 202986%
- Before Jul 1, 202881.5%
- Before Jan 1, 202877.5%
- Before Oct 1, 202770%
- Before Jul 1, 202765%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $1.81M · K 151.2K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 5, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Before Jan 2027 If Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. Kash Patel must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death, i.e., if the person dies while holding the role, all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term. This market will close and expire early if the specific individual leaves the role as defined in the payout criteria.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks "Kash Patel out as FBI Director?" and contains nine Kalshi markets, each asking whether Kash Patel will be out as FBI Director before a different cutoff date [1]. The payout rules say the market resolves to Yes if he "leaves as FBI Director" before the stated date, and that he "must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period" [1]. The rules count resignation, retirement, removal, and expiration of a term without renewal, but "Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving" unless the person "formally and permanently ceases to hold the position" [1]. If he dies in office, "all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The markets were observed at 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z and retrieved at 2026-10-29T06:08:40.290Z, so these prices describe that earlier observation, not live conditions [1]. All nine saved markets are included, and the sample is not partial [1].
Yes prices rise with later cutoffs. The Yes price is 0.005 for the November 1, 2026 cutoff, 0.045 for December 1, 2026, 0.195 for February 1, 2027, 0.345 for April 1, 2027, 0.505 for July 1, 2027, 0.63 for January 1, 2028, and 0.845 for January 1, 2029 [1]. Each Yes price is paired with a No price that sums to 1 in the snapshot. These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The listed endDate values are not the same as the cutoff dates in the titles. For example, the January 1, 2029 market lists an end date of 2029-01-08T15:00:00.000Z, and the July 1, 2028 market lists 2028-07-08T14:00:00.000Z [1]. The source does not explain this difference, so readers should check the contract terms before relying on a listed end time. The provider status also says the "Listed end time: not supplied" for the event [1].
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are at their current levels, and it contains no recent news about the FBI Director position. Volume and the number of traders are not in the snapshot, so these prices do not show how much liquidity exists or how many people hold a view. Because all markets come from one provider, no cross-platform comparison is possible. Differences between the cutoff dates reflect different contracts, not an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Kalshi: Kash Patel out as FBI Director?. Provider data observed 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 29, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks whether Kash Patel will leave the position of FBI Director before a stated deadline. The Kalshi event rules say the market resolves to Yes if he leaves the role before the relevant date [1]. The event is titled 'Kash Patel out as FBI Director?' and sits in the Politics category, and its listed contracts use deadlines running from November 2026 through January 2029 [1]. The rules require more than a announcement or a change in status. Under the event terms, Patel must have an actual departure date and must vacate the role within the time period [1]. The rules count both voluntary and involuntary departures, including resignation, retirement, removal, and expiration of a term without renewal [1]. They also say a temporary leave of absence, suspension, or recusal does not count unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position [1]. The rules address two less common situations. If the person vacates the role and later returns to it, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role [1]. If the person dies while holding the role, all contracts on that person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange [1]. The event also states that the market will close and expire early if the specific individual leaves the role as defined in the payout criteria [1]. Each listed contract has its own deadline. The market titles range from before November 1, 2026 to before January 1, 2029, and each one asks whether the same departure will occur before its own date [1]. Because the contracts share the same underlying event but end on different dates, a departure that happens before an earlier deadline would also fall before every later one. The reverse is not true, so the contracts are not independent bets on different events.
Historical Context
The Wikipedia excerpt retrieved for this article gives Patel's earlier roles. It says he served as chief of staff to the United States secretary of defense from 2020 to 2021 and as acting principal deputy director of national intelligence [2]. The excerpt describes these as past positions and does not describe any event that would end his current role [2]. A separate Wikipedia excerpt describes the Epstein files as a partially released collection of documents held in the FBI's Sentinel case management system [3]. That excerpt does not mention Patel or this contract, so it does not explain the market.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a specific official stops holding one federal position before a set date. It is a question about a departure event, not about Patel's performance, and the rules are written to capture formal departures rather than temporary absences [1]. Because the rules count natural expiration of a term, the contract is not limited to firings or resignations [1]. The rules also define the event narrowly, so a leave of absence or recusal would not by itself resolve the market [1]. The Kalshi rules state that the event has an active provider status and that no listed end time was supplied [1]. The saved market records carry close dates for each contract, but the event page itself does not state an end time, so those dates should be read as the contract's listed closing times rather than as announced dates for any departure [1]. The contract rules do not state that any departure is scheduled or expected.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-29 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a temporary leave or recusal count as leaving the role?
No. The event rules say temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not count unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position [1].
What happens if Patel leaves and then returns to the role?
The rules say the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role if the person vacates the role and then re-occupies it [1].
Would a natural end of a term count?
Yes. The rules say cessation of holding the role qualifies, including expiration of term without renewal, and that this covers both voluntary and involuntary early departure as well as natural expiration of a term [1].
What happens to the contracts if Patel dies in office?
The rules say that if the person dies while holding the role, all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange [1].
Does the Wikipedia excerpt confirm his current status?
No. The Wikipedia excerpt describes his service as of the time it was written and retrieved, and it is background rather than a verified report of a current event [2].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
