
$2.07K
1
14

$2.07K
1
14
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Before Jan 1, 2045 If X is announced as the first new non-interim leader of the Chinese Communist Party, CCP, before Jan 1, 2045, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves when the first new non-interim leader is officially announced by the party or credible sources. The person need not have taken office before the deadline date, only be announced as the incoming leader. Interim or acting leaders do not qualify unless they are subsequently announced as the permanent leader. If multip
Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to Ding Xuexiang becoming the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party. The specific contract trading on Kalshi is priced at 29 cents, implying the market sees only a 29% chance that Ding will be announced as Xi Jinping's successor before January 1, 2045. This price suggests the market views his succession as possible, but significantly less likely than not. The thin trading volume, approximately $2,000 across 14 related markets, indicates low liquidity and high speculative uncertainty on this long-term political question.
The primary factor suppressing Ding Xuexiang's odds is the unprecedented consolidation of power under Xi Jinping, who abolished presidential term limits in 2018 and has not indicated any clear succession plan. Historically, successors like Hu Jintao were groomed years in advance, a pattern currently absent. Ding, as Xi's longtime chief of staff and a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, is a plausible insider candidate, which supports his non-zero probability. However, his age is a critical negative factor. He will be 81 in 2045, making him an exceptionally old candidate for a first-time leadership appointment in the modern CCP, which traditionally favors younger leaders for long-term stability.
The odds for Ding Xuexiang, and for any successor, are highly sensitive to the political health and decisions of Xi Jinping. A significant shift could occur if Xi unexpectedly steps down or announces a retirement plan, prompting a formal succession process. A major political event, such as a health crisis or a sudden reshuffle within the top leadership, could also rapidly reorder the field of potential successors. More immediately, the outcomes of the 2027 and 2032 Party Congresses will be critical. These meetings are where leadership transitions are formally orchestrated. Any promotion for Ding into a more prominent, heir-apparent role like Vice President or Executive Vice Premier would cause his odds to surge. Conversely, the rise of a younger Politburo member, such as Chen Min'er or Li Qiang, into a clearly designated position would likely crater Ding's market price.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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14 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Ding Xuexiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? | Kalshi | 29% |
Will Li Qiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? | Kalshi | 16% |
Will Li Xi become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? | Kalshi | 12% |
Will Cai Qi become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? | Kalshi | 12% |
Will Zhao Leji become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? | Kalshi | 10% |
Will Wang Huning become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will Chen Jining become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will Zhang Guoqing become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will Yin Li become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will Chen Min'er become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will Yin Yong become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will Ma Xingrui become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will Li Ganjie become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will He Lifeng become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? | Kalshi | 2% |
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