This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 4?

Name: How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 4?
End: 2026-05-10T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.27K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 4?

Vol

$1.27K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.27K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.27K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	Poly	47%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	Poly	37%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	Poly	12%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	Poly	6%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

47%

Top Probability

$1.27K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 4, 2026, through May 10, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 4?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 10, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 4, 2026, through May 10, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 4, 2026, through May 10, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reporte"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $94.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $159
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $133
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $559
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $171
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $247
  DATA: [Yes: 37.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics