Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Will the Fed publish a dot plot in December?

Total Volume

$34.49

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will the Fed publish a dot plot in December?

Vol

$34.49

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $34.49

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $34.49

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will the Federal Reserve publish a dot plot for its December 2026 Summary of Economic Projections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Federal Reserve publish a dot plot for its December 2026 Summary of Economic Projections?	Kalshi	91%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

91%

Top Probability

$34.49

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In December 2026 If the Federal Reserve publishing a dot plot for its December 2026 Summary of Economic Projections is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Dec 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. A “dot plot” means Federal Reserve projection materials showing individual FOMC participants’ projections for the appropriate federal funds rate. It is sufficient if the projection materials include those individual federal funds rate projections, even if the exact p

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the Fed publish a dot plot in December?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In December 2026

If the Federal Reserve publishing a dot plot for its December 2026 Summary of Economic Projections is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Dec 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. A “dot plot” means Federal Reserve projection materials showing individual FOMC participants’ projections for the appropriate federal funds rate. It is sufficient if the projection materials include those individual federal funds rate projections, even if the exact p

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Federal Reserve publishing a dot plot for its December 2026 Summary of Economic Projections is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Dec 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A “dot plot” means Federal Reserve projection materials showing indi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $34
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Federal Reserve publish a dot plot for its December 2026 Summary of Economic Projections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 17, 2026): Vol $34
  DATA: [Yes: 91.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.0% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics