Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Fed median dot plot in December 2026

Total Volume

$1.81K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Fed median dot plot in December 2026

Vol

$1.81K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.81K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.81K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

12 markets tracked

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.5%)

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.5%)	Kalshi	98%
What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.7%)	Kalshi	98%
What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.6%)	Kalshi	98%
What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.8%)	Kalshi	97%
What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.9%)	Kalshi	97%
What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 4.0%)	Kalshi	90%
What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 4.1%)	Kalshi	70%
What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 4.2%)	Kalshi	40%
What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 4.3%)	Kalshi	20%
What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 4.4%)	Kalshi	7%
What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 4.5%)	Kalshi	6%
What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 4.6%)	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$1.81K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

At Dec 2026 meeting If the median projected appropriate level of the federal funds rate for year-end 2026, as shown in the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections, is above X at the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying will be the published median year-end 2026 federal funds rate projection in the Summary of Economic Projections. It is not the federal funds target range announced at the meeting. If the Federal Reserve does not publish a Summary of

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Fed median dot plot in December 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** At Dec 2026 meeting

If the median projected appropriate level of the federal funds rate for year-end 2026, as shown in the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections, is above X at the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying will be the published median year-end 2026 federal funds rate projection in the Summary of Economic Projections. It is not the federal funds target range announced at the meeting. If the Federal Reserve does not publish a Summary of

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the median projected appropriate level of the federal funds rate for year-end 2026, as shown in the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections, is above 4.6% at the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying will be the published median year"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 4.6%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 4.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 16, 2026): Vol $62
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 4.4%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 16, 2026): Vol $41
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 4.3%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 16, 2026): Vol $401
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 4.2%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 16, 2026): Vol $60
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 4.1%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 16, 2026): Vol $605
  DATA: [Yes: 69.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 30.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 4.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 16, 2026): Vol $400
  DATA: [Yes: 90.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.9%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 16, 2026): Vol $240
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.8%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.7%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.6%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 98.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Fed median dot plot in December 2026

Volume$1.81K

Markets12

12 of 12

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KALSHI

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.5%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.0¢No 2.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.5%)

If the median projected appropriate level of the federal funds rate for year-end 2026, as shown in the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections, is above 3.5% at the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying will be the published median year

KALSHI

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.7%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.7%)

If the median projected appropriate level of the federal funds rate for year-end 2026, as shown in the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections, is above 3.7% at the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying will be the published median year

KALSHI

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.6%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.6%)

If the median projected appropriate level of the federal funds rate for year-end 2026, as shown in the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections, is above 3.6% at the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying will be the published median year

KALSHI

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.8%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.0¢No 3.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.8%)

If the median projected appropriate level of the federal funds rate for year-end 2026, as shown in the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections, is above 3.8% at the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying will be the published median year

KALSHI

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.9%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.9%)

If the median projected appropriate level of the federal funds rate for year-end 2026, as shown in the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections, is above 3.9% at the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying will be the published median year

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Fed median dot plot in December 2026

Fed median dot plot in December 2026

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What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.5%)

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Events (1)

Fed median dot plot in December 2026

Markets (12)

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.5%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.5%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.7%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.7%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.6%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.6%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.8%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.8%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.9%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.9%)

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What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.5%)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Fed median dot plot in December 2026

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.5%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.5%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.7%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.7%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.6%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.6%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.8%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.8%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.9%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.9%)

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