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Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Which ICE reforms will become law in 2026?

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Which ICE reforms will become law in 2026?

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Will legislation that requires immigration enforcement officers to display visible identification during public-facing immigration enforcement actions become law before Jan 1, 2027?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will legislation that requires immigration enforcement officers to display visible identification during public-facing immigration enforcement actions become law before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	9%
Will legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in law enforcement or immigration enforcement activities to wear a clearly visible, scannable QR code become law before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	8%
Will legislation that prohibits ICE agents conducting immigration enforcement operations from wearing facial coverings, with limited exceptions become law before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	8%
Will legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in enforcement operations to wear body-worn cameras become law in 2026?	Kalshi	8%
Will legislation that transfers Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) out of ICE to establish it as a separate entity within the Department of Homeland Security become law in 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will legislation that abolishes U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement as a federal agency become law before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	3%

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About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2027 Before Jan 1, 2027 An example of this is H.R. X Y This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which ICE reforms will become law in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2027

Before Jan 1, 2027 An example of this is H.R. X Y This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in law enforcement or immigration enforcement activities to wear a clearly visible, scannable QR code has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An example of this is H.R. 7233 (11"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in law enforcement or immigration enforcement activities to wear a clearly visible, scannable QR code become law before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will legislation that prohibits ICE agents conducting immigration enforcement operations from wearing facial coverings, with limited exceptions become law before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.6% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will legislation that requires immigration enforcement officers to display visible identification during public-facing immigration enforcement actions become law before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will legislation that transfers Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) out of ICE to establish it as a separate entity within the Department of Homeland Security become law in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in enforcement operations to wear body-worn cameras become law in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will legislation that abolishes U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement as a federal agency become law before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Which ICE reforms will become law in 2026?

Before Jan 1, 2027 Before Jan 1, 2027 An example of this is H.R. X Y This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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KALSHI

Will legislation that requires immigration enforcement officers to display visible identification during public-facing immigration enforcement actions become law before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will legislation that requires immigration enforcement officers to display visible identification during public-facing immigration enforcement actions become law before Jan 1, 2027?

If legislation that requires immigration enforcement officers to display visible identification during public-facing immigration enforcement actions has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An example of this is S. 2212 (119th) — VISIBLE

KALSHI

Will legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in law enforcement or immigration enforcement activities to wear a clearly visible, scannable QR code become law before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.4¢No 91.6¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in law enforcement or immigration enforcement activities to wear a clearly visible, scannable QR code become law before Jan 1, 2027?

If legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in law enforcement or immigration enforcement activities to wear a clearly visible, scannable QR code has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An example of this is H.R. 7233 (11

KALSHI

Will legislation that prohibits ICE agents conducting immigration enforcement operations from wearing facial coverings, with limited exceptions become law before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.3¢No 91.6¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will legislation that prohibits ICE agents conducting immigration enforcement operations from wearing facial coverings, with limited exceptions become law before Jan 1, 2027?

If legislation that prohibits ICE agents conducting immigration enforcement operations from wearing facial coverings, with limited exceptions has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An example of this is H.R. 4004 (119th) — No Anonymity

KALSHI

Will legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in enforcement operations to wear body-worn cameras become law in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in enforcement operations to wear body-worn cameras become law in 2026?

If legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in enforcement operations to wear body-worn cameras has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An example of this is H.R. 4651 (119th) — Immigration Enforcement Staff Body Camera A

KALSHI

Will legislation that transfers Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) out of ICE to establish it as a separate entity within the Department of Homeland Security become law in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.3¢No 94.8¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will legislation that transfers Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) out of ICE to establish it as a separate entity within the Department of Homeland Security become law in 2026?

If legislation that transfers Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) out of ICE to establish it as a separate entity within the Department of Homeland Security has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An example of this is H.R. 673 (119t

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Which ICE reforms will become law in 2026?

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Will legislation that requires immigration enforcement officers to display visible identification during public-facing immigration enforcement actions become law before Jan 1, 2027?

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About This Event

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Events (1)

Which ICE reforms will become law in 2026?

Markets (6)

Will legislation that requires immigration enforcement officers to display visible identification during public-facing immigration enforcement actions become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will legislation that requires immigration enforcement officers to display visible identification during public-facing immigration enforcement actions become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in law enforcement or immigration enforcement activities to wear a clearly visible, scannable QR code become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in law enforcement or immigration enforcement activities to wear a clearly visible, scannable QR code become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will legislation that prohibits ICE agents conducting immigration enforcement operations from wearing facial coverings, with limited exceptions become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will legislation that prohibits ICE agents conducting immigration enforcement operations from wearing facial coverings, with limited exceptions become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in enforcement operations to wear body-worn cameras become law in 2026?

Will legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in enforcement operations to wear body-worn cameras become law in 2026?

Will legislation that transfers Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) out of ICE to establish it as a separate entity within the Department of Homeland Security become law in 2026?

Will legislation that transfers Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) out of ICE to establish it as a separate entity within the Department of Homeland Security become law in 2026?

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Will legislation that requires immigration enforcement officers to display visible identification during public-facing immigration enforcement actions become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which ICE reforms will become law in 2026?

Will legislation that requires immigration enforcement officers to display visible identification during public-facing immigration enforcement actions become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will legislation that requires immigration enforcement officers to display visible identification during public-facing immigration enforcement actions become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in law enforcement or immigration enforcement activities to wear a clearly visible, scannable QR code become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in law enforcement or immigration enforcement activities to wear a clearly visible, scannable QR code become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will legislation that prohibits ICE agents conducting immigration enforcement operations from wearing facial coverings, with limited exceptions become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will legislation that prohibits ICE agents conducting immigration enforcement operations from wearing facial coverings, with limited exceptions become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in enforcement operations to wear body-worn cameras become law in 2026?

Will legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in enforcement operations to wear body-worn cameras become law in 2026?

Will legislation that transfers Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) out of ICE to establish it as a separate entity within the Department of Homeland Security become law in 2026?

Will legislation that transfers Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) out of ICE to establish it as a separate entity within the Department of Homeland Security become law in 2026?

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