Iran successfully targets shipping on...? | PredictPedia

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Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Iran successfully targets shipping on...?

Name: Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$120.73K

Events

Markets

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Iran successfully targets shipping on...?

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Polymarket

markets · $120.73K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $120.73K

100%

Polymarket leads

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1 market tracked

Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 31, 2026?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$120.73K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, e

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, e

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.

Only military actions by Iranian "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $7.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.5K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $7.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

4¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/WnRi4g" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Iran successfully targets shipping on...?"></iframe>

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Iran successfully targets shipping on...?

Iran successfully targets shipping on...?

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Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 31, 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)