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Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Name: Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
End: 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$227.86K

Events

Markets

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Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Vol

$227.86K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $227.86K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $227.86K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	Poly	37%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	Poly	25%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?	Poly	18%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?	Poly	10%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	10%
Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	9%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10%?	Poly	5%
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	5%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%?	Poly	5%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?	Poly	4%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

37%

Top Probability

$227.86K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, July 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 4, 2026 (81 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is define"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $227.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $58.5K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.89)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 37.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $6.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $199.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.4% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.6% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETWorld