Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?

Total Volume

$5.88K

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Markets

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Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?

Vol

$5.88K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $5.88K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.88K

100%

Kalshi leads

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4 markets tracked

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2030?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2030?	Kalshi	67%
Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2029?	Kalshi	61%
Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2028?	Kalshi	41%
Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2027?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

67%

Top Probability

$5.88K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before 2030 If any of the Source Agencies report that an LLM has beaten a chess grandmaster in chess before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. Only a game played after Issuance counts. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2030

If any of the Source Agencies report that an LLM has beaten a chess grandmaster in chess before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. Only a game played after Issuance counts. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If any of the Source Agencies report that an LLM has beaten a chess grandmaster in chess before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only a game played after Issuance counts. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $518
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $523
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $145
  DATA: [Yes: 67.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?

Volume$5.88K

Markets4

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KALSHI

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2030?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 67.0¢No 33.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2030?

If any of the Source Agencies report that an LLM has beaten a chess grandmaster in chess before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only a game played after Issuance counts. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 60.5¢No 39.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2029?

If any of the Source Agencies report that an LLM has beaten a chess grandmaster in chess before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only a game played after Issuance counts. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 40.5¢No 59.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2028?

If any of the Source Agencies report that an LLM has beaten a chess grandmaster in chess before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only a game played after Issuance counts. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2027?

If any of the Source Agencies report that an LLM has beaten a chess grandmaster in chess before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only a game played after Issuance counts. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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43¢

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Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2030?

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Events (1)

Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?

Markets (4)

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2030?

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2030?

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2029?

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2029?

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2028?

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2028?

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2027?

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2027?

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Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2030?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2030?

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2030?

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2029?

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2029?

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2028?

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2028?

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2027?

Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2027?

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