Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event asks where rain will fall on Oct 26, 2026, and each city has its own market. The rules state: "If the total precipitation X 26, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes." [1] The excerpt says "Trace" amounts, T, and missing daily precipitation values are counted as 0 inches [1]. The official value is the one "reported by the Weather Company," and the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1]. The rules also note that sources such as AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide a decision, but they do not set the resolution value [1].

Reading the snapshot

The provider observation time is 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-25T19:03:36.900Z [1]. These prices describe that observation only. They are not live quotes or verified probabilities. In the included sample, Yes prices range from 0.015 to 0.945, with Minneapolis at 0.945 and San Antonio at 0.055 [1].

Each market lists its own end date. Minneapolis lists 2026-10-28T06:00:00.000Z and Denver lists 2026-10-28T07:00:00.000Z [1]. These are listed close times, not resolution times. The source gives the event's listed end time as "not supplied" [1].

Prices differ across cities because each is a separate contract with its own location and wording. A difference between cities does not show that one contract is mispriced, and it is not an arbitrage opportunity. The sample does not include trading volume, liquidity, or the number of traders.

What remains uncertain

The sample is partial. For this provider event, 12 of 35 markets are included [1]. Markets were selected by Yes price, highest first, so the 23 omitted markets are not shown. They should not be assumed to be priced lower. No cross-event or cross-provider comparison is supplied. The source does not explain why prices moved or sit where they do. Forecast accuracy is not assessed here. The final outcome depends on the official value named in the rules [1].

References

1. Kalshi: Where will it rain on Oct 26, 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z.