Market snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsAI

Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI or Bubeck?

Reported volume

PM $7.8K · K 408.1 contracts

Events

Markets

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Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI or Bubeck?

Vol

PM $7.8K · K 408.1 contracts

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Provider overview

polymarket

$7.8K

Reported lifetime volume

kalshi

408.1 contracts

Reported lifetime volume

Reviewed equivalent pairs

No eligible price comparison

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Price ChartContract price history

1 market tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI or Bubeck?

No data available

Include related or unreviewed contracts

No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with usable prices. You can inspect related contracts, but their prices do not measure the same outcome.

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Related contracts: 1 pair

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

Review notes

Saved notes may describe earlier contract terms. Use the pair status above and current provider rules.

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI or Bubeck?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Tristan Buckmaster sues OpenAI by...?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $7.8K · K 408.1 contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Reviewed equivalent pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2027 If Tristan Buckmaster sues OpenAI or Sébastien Bubeck before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A lawsuit or some other formal adversarial legal process (such as pre-complaint discovery or an arbitration claim) is encompassed by the Payout Criterion. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI or Bubeck?
Source snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $7.8K · K 408.1 contracts
Coverage: 2 of 2 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI or Sébastien Bubeck before Jan 1, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXBUCKMASTERSUE-26SEP-YES; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbuckmastersue-26sep
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 408.1 contracts
Outcome Yes: 11.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 88.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Tristan Buckmaster sues OpenAI or Sébastien Bubeck before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A lawsuit or some other formal adversarial legal process (such as pre-complaint discovery or an arbitration claim) is encompassed by the Payout Criterion. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-4418564; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-tristan-buckmaster-sue-openai-by-december-31-2026
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $4.1K
Outcome Yes: 19.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 81.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tristan Buckmaster files a lawsuit against OpenAI, or any of its subsidiaries, executives, or employees, by 11:59 PM ET of the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A lawsuit in which Tristan Buckmaster is a named plaintiff, alone or jointly with others, will qualify. An announcement of intent to sue or a legal threat will not qualify; a lawsuit must actually be filed in court.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant court. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Saved cross-platform review:
polymarket-4418564 / kalshi-KXBUCKMASTERSUE-26SEP-YES: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI or Sébastien Bubeck before Jan 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI by December 31, 2026?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 17, 2026, 8:19 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI or Bubeck?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Tristan Buckmaster sues OpenAI by...?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIAI

Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI or Bubeck?

Volume$408.10

Markets1

POLYMARKETTech

Tristan Buckmaster sues OpenAI by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tristan Buckmaster files a lawsuit against OpenAI, or any of its subsidiaries, executives, or employees, by 11:59 PM ET of the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A lawsuit in which Tristan Buckmaster is a named plaintiff, alone or jointly with others, will qualify. An announcement of intent to sue or a legal threat will not qualify; a lawsuit must actually be filed in court. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant court. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volume$7.80K

Markets1

1 of 1

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Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI or Sébastien Bubeck before Jan 1, 2027?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI or Sébastien Bubeck before Jan 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI by December 31, 2026?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 08:19:58 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI or Sébastien Bubeck before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes: 11.5¢
No: 88.5¢

polymarket

Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI by December 31, 2026?

Yes: 19.0¢
No: 81.0¢

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

KalshiAI

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Next Market Deadline

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Jan 01, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

Reviewed equivalent pairs

No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI or Bubeck?

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