Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIAI

Will Sébastien Bubeck leave OpenAI?

Total Volume

$223.59

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Sébastien Bubeck leave OpenAI?

Vol

$223.59

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $223.59

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $223.59

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Sébastien Bubeck leave OpenAI before Jan 1, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Sébastien Bubeck leave OpenAI before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	12%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

12%

Top Probability

$223.59

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2027 If Sébastien Bubeck has either officially announced their intention to leave employment at OpenAI or has actually left employment at OpenAI after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to b

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Sébastien Bubeck leave OpenAI?
**Category:** AI | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2027

If Sébastien Bubeck
 has either officially announced their intention to leave employment at OpenAI or has actually left employment at OpenAI after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to b

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Sébastien Bubeck
 has either officially announced their intention to leave employment at OpenAI or has actually left employment at OpenAI after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves,"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $224
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Sébastien Bubeck leave OpenAI before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $224
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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