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Event GroupPOLYMARKETScience

How many SpaceX launches in May?

Name: How many SpaceX launches in May?
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

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How many SpaceX launches in May?

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Kalshi

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Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in May?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in May?	Poly	50%
Will SpaceX have 14 or more launches in May?	Poly	50%
Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in May?	Poly	48%
Will SpaceX have exactly 11 launches in May?	Poly	47%
Will SpaceX have exactly 9 launches in May?	Poly	46%
Will SpaceX have exactly 10 launches in May?	Poly	42%
Will SpaceX have less than or equal to 8 launches in May?	Poly	7%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

50%

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$0.00

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About This Event

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between May 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many SpaceX launches in May?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between May 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches. 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between May 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $624
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will SpaceX have less than or equal to 8 launches in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will SpaceX have exactly 9 launches in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will SpaceX have exactly 10 launches in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will SpaceX have exactly 11 launches in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 47.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will SpaceX have 14 or more launches in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETScience