Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

How many Trump-won districts will Democrats win in 2026?

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$4.39K

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How many Trump-won districts will Democrats win in 2026?

Vol

$4.39K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $4.39K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Volume DistributionTotal: $4.39K

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13 markets tracked

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 19 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

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Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 19 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	98%
Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 16 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	98%
Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 13 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	98%
Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 10 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	98%
Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 22 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	97%
Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 25 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	95%
Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 28 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	90%
Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 31 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	81%
Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 35 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	68%
Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 40 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	47%
Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 46 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	28%
Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 52 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	16%
Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 58 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	6%

AI Analysis

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98%

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About This Event

November 3, 2026 If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least X at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying districts are the 235 in which Trump received more votes than Harris in 2024, as calculated by The Downballot in its 2024 presidential results by congressional district table, for the district boundaries in use at the 2026 elections. That list is fixed as of Issuanc

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Trump-won districts will Democrats win in 2026?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** November 3, 2026

If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least X at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying districts are the 235 in which Trump received more votes than Harris in 2024, as calculated by The Downballot in its 2024 presidential results by congressional district table, for the district boundaries in use at the 2026 elections. That list is fixed as of Issuanc

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 58 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The qualifying districts are the 235 in which Trump received more votes than Harr"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 58 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 52 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 46 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 40 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $397
  DATA: [Yes: 47.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 35 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $52
  DATA: [Yes: 68.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 31 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $241
  DATA: [Yes: 81.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 28 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $50
  DATA: [Yes: 90.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 25 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $202
  DATA: [Yes: 95.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 22 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $602
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 19 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $612
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 16 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $400
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 13 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 10 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $26
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

How many Trump-won districts will Democrats win in 2026?

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KALSHI

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 19 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 19 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 19 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The qualifying districts are the 235 in which Trump received more votes than Harr

KALSHI

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 16 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 16 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 16 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The qualifying districts are the 235 in which Trump received more votes than Harr

KALSHI

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 13 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 13 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 13 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The qualifying districts are the 235 in which Trump received more votes than Harr

KALSHI

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 10 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 10 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 10 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The qualifying districts are the 235 in which Trump received more votes than Harr

KALSHI

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 22 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 22 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 22 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The qualifying districts are the 235 in which Trump received more votes than Harr

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Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 19 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

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Events (1)

How many Trump-won districts will Democrats win in 2026?

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Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 19 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 19 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 16 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 16 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 13 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 13 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 10 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 10 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 22 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 22 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

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Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 19 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many Trump-won districts will Democrats win in 2026?

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 19 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 19 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 16 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 16 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 13 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 13 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 10 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 10 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 22 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 22 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

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