Name: How many people will Trump deport in 2025?
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z

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How many people will Trump deport in 2025? | PredictPedia

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9 markets tracked

Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?	Poly	89%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?	Poly	6%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?	Poly	1%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people?	Poly	1%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people?	Poly	1%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?	Poly	1%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people?	Poly	1%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people?	Poly	1%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people?	Poly	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many people will Trump deport in 2025?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2025 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This is a market on the prediction of the number of people Trump will deport in 2025.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes less than 250,000 non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.47M
* **Total Liquidity:** $66.9K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 66.81)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump deport less than 250,000?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2025): Vol $949.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2025): Vol $1.05M
  DATA: [Yes: 88.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2025): Vol $440.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.4% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2025): Vol $386.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2025): Vol $374.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2025): Vol $293.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2025): Vol $320.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2025): Vol $349.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2025): Vol $305.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

11¢

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Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?

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Events (1)

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

Markets (9)

Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?

Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?

Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?

Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?

Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?

Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?

Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people?

Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people?

Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people?

Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people?

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Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?

Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?

Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?

Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?

Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?

Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?

Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people?

Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people?

Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people?

Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people?

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