Illinois Democratic Senate primary margin of victory? | PredictPedia

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13 markets tracked

Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 6% and 9%?

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Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 6% and 9%?	Kalshi	97%
Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 3% and 6%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 9% and 12%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 15% and 100%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 12% and 15%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Raja Krishnamoorthi in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 9% and 12%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 0% and 3%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for Raja Krishnamoorthi in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 6% and 9%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for Raja Krishnamoorthi in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 15% and 100%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for Raja Krishnamoorthi in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 3% and 6%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for Raja Krishnamoorthi in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 12% and 15%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for Raja Krishnamoorthi in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 0% and 3%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for Robin Kelly in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 0% and 100%?	Kalshi	0%

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Illinois Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Mar 17, 2026

If the margin of victory for Raja Krishnamoorthi in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election falls between X and Y inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Raja Krishnamoorthi minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Raja Kri

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the margin of victory for Raja Krishnamoorthi in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election falls between 6% and 9%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows base"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Raja Krishnamoorthi in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 6% and 9%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Raja Krishnamoorthi in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 15% and 100%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Raja Krishnamoorthi in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 3% and 6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Raja Krishnamoorthi in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 12% and 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Raja Krishnamoorthi in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 9% and 12%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Raja Krishnamoorthi in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 0% and 3%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for Robin Kelly in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 0% and 100%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 6% and 9%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 15% and 100%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 3% and 6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 12% and 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 9% and 12%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 0% and 3%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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8¢

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Illinois Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

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Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 6% and 9%?

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Events (1)

Illinois Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

Markets (13)

Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 6% and 9%?

Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 6% and 9%?

Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 9% and 12%?

Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 9% and 12%?

Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 15% and 100%?

Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 15% and 100%?

Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 12% and 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 12% and 15%?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 6% and 9%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Illinois Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 6% and 9%?

Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 6% and 9%?

Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 9% and 12%?

Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 9% and 12%?

Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 15% and 100%?

Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 15% and 100%?

Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 12% and 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Juliana Stratton in the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary election be between 12% and 15%?

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