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GroupKALSHI

Will Obamacare be repealed?

Will Obamacare be repealed?
Vol

K 9.1K contracts

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Events

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Markets

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AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 9.1K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

1

Saved contracts

0

Reviewed equivalent pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC

About This Event

Before Jan 20, 2029 If a bill becomes law that eliminates any of the following ACA provisions: (1) the employer mandate (2) the Medicaid eligibility expansion (3) the protection for preexisting conditions (4) permitting people up to the age of 26 to be on their parents' health care plans or (5) ends the premium subsidies for households on the ACA marketplace before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. More specifically, the requirements are that a bill either: ends the shared responsibility (penalty) provisions for employers, or reduces those penalties to $0; eliminates the expansion of Medicaid eligibility to non-elderly adults with incomes up to 133% of the poverty level; ends the prohibition on coverage exclusions based on pre existing conditions; redefines the term “dependent” for the purposes of the ACA’s employer shared responsibility provisions from meaning a child under 26 to a child under 18 or younger; or ends premium subsidies for individuals whose household incomes are between 100% and 400% of the federal poverty level for premiums purchased on an ACA exchange. Merely reducing the subsidies to something other than $0 is not sufficient. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Reviewed equivalent pairs

0

No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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