7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?
K 812.47 contracts
1
15
7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?
K 812.47 contracts
1
15
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is 4.71% or above at 95%.
Kalshi
- 4.71% or above95%
- 4.73% or above93.5%
- 4.75% or above92.5%
- 4.77% or above92%
- 4.79% or above88%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 812.47 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
15
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
On Oct 30, 2026 If the par yield for the 7Y U.S. Treasury is above X on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 30, 2026, or one week following Oct 30, 2026.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-20T03:00:06.020Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied Kalshi event asks whether the par yield for the 7-year U.S. Treasury will be above a stated level on October 30, 2026. In the source's words, "If the par yield for the 7Y U.S. Treasury is above X on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Each listed market in the sample uses a different threshold, from 4.85% to 5.07%, so each is a separate yes or no question.
The settlement timing matters for comparison. The source says "The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 30, 2026, or one week following Oct 30, 2026" [1]. The source also states that the listed end time was not supplied. The listed endDate in the market data is 2026-11-01T05:05:00.000Z, but the evidence does not explain how that timestamp relates to the settlement rule, so readers should rely on the rule text for timing.
Reading the snapshot
The prices come from a provider observation at 2026-10-20T03:00:06Z, retrieved at 04:22 UTC the same day. They describe that moment only and may have changed since. Within this snapshot, the Yes price falls as the threshold rises: 0.845 for above 4.85%, 0.695 for above 4.95%, 0.495 for above 5.05%, and 0.445 for above 5.07% [1]. Because each threshold is a distinct contract, comparing them shows how the quoted prices change across the listed levels, not how any single outcome has moved over time.
These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence does not include trade size, depth, or the number of participants, so the volume and liquidity of these markets cannot be assessed.
What remains uncertain
The sample is partial. The provider event contains 25 markets, and 12 are included [1]. The included markets were selected by highest finite Yes price, so the omitted thresholds are not shown to be lower-priced, and the sample should not be read as the full field. The evidence gives no explanation for why prices are where they are. It also does not show whether the status "active" will persist, nor the actual resolution, which has not occurred according to the supplied material.
References
- Kalshi: 7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-20T03:00:06.020Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 20, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract is a Kalshi market on the par yield of the 7-year U.S. Treasury on October 30, 2026 [1]. Each contract asks whether that yield will be above a stated threshold on that date, and the market resolves to Yes if it is [1]. A set of thresholds is listed, so each one is a separate yes or no question on the same underlying measure. The underlying idea comes from the yield curve. A yield curve shows the relationship between yields and time to maturity for a set of comparable debt securities. In practice the term usually refers to a curve built from a single issuer or market segment, such as the U.S. Treasury curve for government bonds [2]. The 7-year par yield is therefore one point on the U.S. Treasury curve, which is why the contract refers to a specific maturity [1][2]. The market's timing is set by its rules. It expires at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM Eastern Time after the data release for October 30, 2026, or one week after October 30, 2026 [1]. The provider record shows the market as active, but it does not supply a listed end time [1]. The saved record also carries an end date field of November 1, 2026 at 05:05 UTC for these markets, which is a stored data field and not a separately announced event [1]. The saved price snapshot was taken at 03:00 UTC on October 20, 2026, and reflects that moment only. In that snapshot, the included Yes prices ran from about 0.445 for a threshold of 5.07 percent to about 0.845 for a threshold of 4.85 percent [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the 7-year U.S. Treasury par yield will be above a chosen level on a specific date, October 30, 2026 [1]. Because each threshold is a separate question, the set of contracts shows how the market-implied prices change across different yield levels at one point in time, as recorded in the snapshot [1]. Yield curve data is conceptually tied to the Treasury curve, a single-issuer curve used for comparing government debt across maturities [2]. The contract's resolution depends on the data release for the stated date and the expiry rules, so the timing of the release matters for when the contract settles [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-20 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes outcome mean on this contract?
The market resolves to Yes if the par yield for the 7-year U.S. Treasury is above the stated threshold X on October 30, 2026 [1].
When does the market expire?
It expires at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM Eastern Time following the data release for October 30, 2026, or one week following October 30, 2026 [1]. The provider does not supply a listed end time [1].
Are the prices a measure of the likelihood of each outcome?
The prices are snapshots taken at a specific time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1]. They reflect the market prices recorded at that moment only [1].
Why are not all thresholds shown in the price sample?
The saved sample includes 12 of the 25 markets in the provider event, ordered by Yes price and then volume [1]. It is a partial sample, so the remaining thresholds are not shown [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
