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Event GroupKALSHIElections

California governor primary: Eric Swalwell vote percent

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California governor primary: Eric Swalwell vote percent

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9 markets tracked

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 0% and 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Eric Swalwell receive between 0% and 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	100%
Will Eric Swalwell receive at least 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	1%
Will Eric Swalwell receive between 4% and 8% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	1%
Will Eric Swalwell receive between 28% and 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	1%
Will Eric Swalwell receive between 24% and 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	1%
Will Eric Swalwell receive between 20% and 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	1%
Will Eric Swalwell receive between 16% and 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	1%
Will Eric Swalwell receive between 12% and 16% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	1%
Will Eric Swalwell receive between 8% and 12% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	1%

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About This Event

On Jun 2, 2026 If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Eric Swalwell in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary is X to Y inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certifie

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** California governor primary: Eric Swalwell vote percent
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Jun 2, 2026

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Eric Swalwell in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary is X to Y inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certifie

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Eric Swalwell in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary is 32% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Eric Swalwell receive at least 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Eric Swalwell receive between 4% and 8% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Eric Swalwell receive between 28% and 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Eric Swalwell receive between 24% and 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Eric Swalwell receive between 20% and 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Eric Swalwell receive between 0% and 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Eric Swalwell receive between 16% and 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Eric Swalwell receive between 12% and 16% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Eric Swalwell receive between 8% and 12% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

California governor primary: Eric Swalwell vote percent

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KALSHI

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 0% and 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 0% and 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Eric Swalwell in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary is 0% to 3.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷

KALSHI

Will Eric Swalwell receive at least 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Eric Swalwell receive at least 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Eric Swalwell in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary is 32% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷

KALSHI

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 4% and 8% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 4% and 8% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Eric Swalwell in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary is 4% to 7.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷

KALSHI

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 28% and 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 28% and 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Eric Swalwell in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary is 28% to 31.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party

KALSHI

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 24% and 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 24% and 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Eric Swalwell in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary is 24% to 27.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/a101An" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="California governor primary: Eric Swalwell vote percent"></iframe>

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California governor primary: Eric Swalwell vote percent

California governor primary: Eric Swalwell vote percent

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Will Eric Swalwell receive between 0% and 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

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About This Event

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Events (1)

California governor primary: Eric Swalwell vote percent

Markets (9)

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 0% and 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 0% and 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Eric Swalwell receive at least 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Eric Swalwell receive at least 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 4% and 8% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 4% and 8% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 28% and 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 28% and 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 24% and 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 24% and 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

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Will Eric Swalwell receive between 0% and 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

California governor primary: Eric Swalwell vote percent

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 0% and 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 0% and 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Eric Swalwell receive at least 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Eric Swalwell receive at least 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 4% and 8% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 4% and 8% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 28% and 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 28% and 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 24% and 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Eric Swalwell receive between 24% and 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

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