Snapshot observed 2026-11-12T09:00:07.080Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The event asks about the highest temperature recorded in Oklahoma City on November 12, 2026. According to the rules, the market resolves based on "the maximum temperature recorded at Oklahoma City, CLIOKC, for Nov 12, 2026, ... according to The Weather Company" [1]. The rules also state that "the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the Weather Company" [1]. Other weather services may show different readings, so a reader should check the Weather Company reference, not a general forecast.

The rules warn that "Preliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value" [1]. They also set timing. The Last Trading Time is "11:59 PM local time on November 12, 2026 regardless of any data releases or events occurring," and expiration falls on "the sooner of the first 7:00 or 8:00 AM ET following the release of the data for November 12, 2026, or one week after November 12, 2026" [1]. The saved market records list an end date of 2026-11-19 15:00 UTC, while the source excerpt says the listed end time is "not supplied." The rule text, not the saved end date, is the better guide to closing terms.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-11-12 09:00 UTC, and the record was retrieved at 10:26 UTC on the same day [1]. These are snapshots of quoted Yes and No prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

The six listed brackets show Yes prices of 0.395 for 68 to 69 degrees, 0.235 for 70 to 71, 0.05 for 66 to 67, 0.025 for 72 to 73, 0.015 for below 66, and 0.005 for above 73 [1]. The highest Yes price in this set is the 68 to 69 degree bracket. The Yes prices sum to 0.725, so these brackets do not account for the full price total, and the reason is not given in the evidence.

The sample covers all six saved markets for this single event, with no partial sample flagged [1]. The source says this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Volume and any count of traders are not included, so the prices cannot be read as liquidity or agreement.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, and this summary does not assume a cause. It also does not show whether the Weather Company has published a final value for November 12, 2026. Because the data is preliminary at the time of retrieval, the outcome is not established by this snapshot. Comparing these prices with other platforms would require matching the same event and rules, since differences in wording or close times could change what each contract measures.

References

1. Kalshi: Highest temperature in Oklahoma City on Nov 12, 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-11-12T09:00:07.080Z.