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Events
GroupKALSHI

Where will it rain on Nov 12, 2026?

Where will it rain on Nov 12, 2026?
Vol

K 307.8K contracts

|
Events

1

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Markets

34

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Trenton at 99.5%.

Kalshi

  1. Trenton99.5%
  2. Pittsburgh99.5%
  3. New York City99.5%
  4. Newark99.5%
  5. Columbus99.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 307.8K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

34

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

About This Event

On Nov 12, 2026 If the total precipitation X 12, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes. Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the Weather Company. Reading weather data X can be found at https://weather.com/kalshi. “Trace” amounts, T, and missing daily precipitation values are counted as 0 inches. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Snapshot observed 2026-11-12T09:00:07.080Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event is a set of Kalshi weather contracts asking whether it will rain in a named city on November 12, 2026. Each market resolves to Yes if the total precipitation for that day is strictly greater than 0 inches. The official value comes from the Weather Company, not from other forecasting sites, and "Trace" amounts, T, and missing daily values count as 0 inches [1]. Because the rule uses a strict threshold, even a trace reading resolves to No.

The rules also say the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1]. The excerpt lists the provider status as active and says the listed end time was not supplied [1]. The market records, however, show an endDate of 2026-11-14T05:00:00.000Z for each contract. That timestamp is a listed close field in the market data, not a confirmed resolution date, and it should not be read as the date the rain will be measured.

Reading the snapshot

The prices were observed at 2026-11-12T09:00:07Z and retrieved at 10:02:49Z, so they describe that morning's snapshot only. They are not live quotes and do not show what a trade would fill at now.

Among the 12 included markets, Yes prices range from 0.995 for Columbus and Trenton to 0.615 for Lexington [1]. Washington DC is at 0.64, Detroit at 0.785, and West Palm Beach at 0.695. Each city is a separate contract with its own question, so comparing one city's price with another's describes differing market expectations for different locations, not a single forecast for the region. Differences in price do not on their own indicate an arbitrage opportunity.

The sample covers 12 of 34 markets in this provider event [1]. The included markets were selected by highest Yes price, so the omitted 22 markets cannot be assumed to be lower priced, and no full-field conclusion should be drawn.

What remains uncertain

The excerpt does not explain why any city's price is higher or lower, and this summary does not offer a reason. It also does not report trader counts, volume-based liquidity, or any news. The actual precipitation outcome for November 12, 2026 is not in the supplied evidence, so no resolution is known.

References

  1. Kalshi: Where will it rain on Nov 12, 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-11-12T09:00:07.080Z.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Saved Nov 12, 2026 UTC

Overview

This contract asks whether measurable precipitation will be recorded on November 12, 2026, for a named location. The event is titled "Where will it rain on Nov 12, 2026?" and is listed in the Climate and Weather category [1]. Each city-specific market within the event asks a Yes or No question about that single date, such as whether it will rain in a particular city [1]. The provider's rule is that a market resolves to Yes if total precipitation for the date is strictly greater than 0 inches [1]. Trace amounts, reported as T, and missing daily precipitation values are counted as 0 inches, so they do not satisfy the Yes condition on their own [1]. The rules state that the official and final value is the one reported by the Weather Company, and they note that other forecasting sites such as AccuWeather or Google Weather may help a person form a view but do not set the settlement value [1]. The rules also say the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The saved event record shows an active status and does not supply a listed end time [1]. The date in the contract rules describes the weather day being measured. It is not an announced event or a confirmed closing time. The market records in this snapshot were observed at 09:00 UTC on November 12, 2026, and retrieved at 10:02 UTC the same day. They describe conditions at that moment only. The record does not show a resolved outcome for any city. The saved event lists 34 markets. Only 12 are included in this record, selected by Yes price and then volume. Those included markets cover cities on the East Coast, Midwest, Southeast, and Kentucky. The remaining markets are not described here, so no conclusions should be drawn about them from this sample.

Historical Context

Background sources describe weather events in the autumn of 2026 that are separate from this contract. A Wikipedia article on the November 2026 Florida floods describes a historic flash flood event in which record-breaking rainfall struck the state, with East Central Florida hardest hit and 24 inches (610 mm) of rain reported in Malabar in 24 hours [2]. The same article reports that the rainfall prompted a flash flood emergency for Palm Bay and that two people were killed in Brevard County due to flooding [2]. A separate Wikipedia article describes Hurricane Isaias, a tropical cyclone that affected the Southeastern United States in early October 2026 and made landfall near Destin, Florida, before becoming post-tropical over Alabama on October 10 [3]. These articles describe past events. Neither source links these storms to the rain contract for November 12, 2026, and Wikipedia retrieval does not verify current conditions.

Why It Matters

The contract measures a narrow question: whether the official value for total precipitation on November 12, 2026, is strictly greater than zero at a given location [1]. Because the rules count trace amounts as zero, the contract separates any measurable rainfall from amounts too small to register [1]. Markets in the same event apply the same rule to different cities, so each one is a separate Yes or No question about one location and one date [1]. Prices shown for these markets are snapshots taken at a specific time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities that rain will occur.

Snapshot context

The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-12 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]

Frequently Asked Questions

What must happen for a market to resolve to Yes?

The market resolves to Yes if the total precipitation for the date is strictly greater than 0 inches, according to the official value reported by the Weather Company [1].

Do trace amounts of rain count?

No. Trace amounts, reported as T, and missing daily precipitation values are counted as 0 inches under the contract rules [1].

Which weather source decides the outcome?

The official and final value is the one reported by the Weather Company. Other sites such as AccuWeather or Google Weather may inform a decision, but the rules do not treat them as the settlement source [1].

Can the market close before the stated date?

Yes. The rules say the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The provider record does not supply a listed end time [1].

Does a price near one show that rain is certain?

No. A price is a snapshot from a specific time and is not an executable quote or a verified probability of rain.

Was this helpful?
Saved Nov 12, 2026 UTC

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

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Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

0

No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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