Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$73.94M
1
1
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$73.94M
1
1
AI Analysis
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About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-13T12:27:38.577Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract asks whether the United States will invade Iran before 2027. Under the rules quoted from the provider, the market resolves "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and "No" otherwise [1]. The rules also treat land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET as the sovereign territory of that country [1]. Resolution depends on "a consensus of credible sources" [1], which leaves room for interpretation about what counts as a commenced offensive.
The listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp corresponds to the December 31, 2026 deadline in the rules. The contract title says "before 2027," so a reader should rely on the rule text and the listed end time rather than the title alone when judging the window.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation was taken at 2026-10-13T12:27:38.577Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-13T13:37:16.676Z [1]. These times describe when the data was collected, not the current state of the market. The provider reported the contract as active [1].
The snapshot shows a "Yes" price of 0.165 and a "No" price of 0.835 on Polymarket [1]. These are the only quoted outcomes in the sample. Prices in this snapshot are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. The sample covers one market from one provider event, with no partial sampling, so there are no omitted outcomes to compare against.
The snapshot does not explain why prices stand where they are, and it contains no information on trading activity or the number of participants.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include any news, official statements, or developments that bear on the contract. Because the saved data is a single snapshot, it cannot show how prices have changed over time or whether they will change before the listed end time. The "consensus of credible sources" standard is not defined further in the supplied material, so how a resolution would be decided remains open to interpretation. No comparison with other platforms or contracts is available in this evidence.
References
- Polymarket: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T12:27:38.577Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 13, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket contract titled "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" [1]. The contract is a binary market with two outcomes, Yes and No. Under its rules, it resolves Yes if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves No [1]. The rules also state that land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country [1]. This means the contract is tied to a defined territorial baseline rather than to general political statements about the countries. The resolution source is described as a consensus of credible sources [1]. The provider's listed end time is January 1, 2027, at 04:59 UTC, which corresponds to the December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET deadline in the rules [1]. That end time is a contract rule. It is not an announced date for any military action or any other event. The contract is one of the provider's saved records, and its status was listed as active when the provider data was retrieved [1]. Readers should treat the rules as the basis for how the market would be settled, and should not read the existence of the contract as evidence that any offensive is planned or underway.
Historical Context
Iran and the United States began a series of negotiations in 2025 and 2026 aimed at reaching a nuclear peace agreement. The talks followed a letter from Donald Trump to Ali Khamenei that set a 60-day deadline for Iran to reach an agreement [2]. According to the Wikipedia summary retrieved for this entry, the deadline passed without an agreement in June 2025, and Israel then launched airstrikes against Iran, starting the Twelve-Day War [2]. The same summary describes three rounds of talks before the Islamabad talks, which led to the Islamabad Memorandum, plus two rounds of technical talks, as of June 28, 2026 [2]. That is a date in the past relative to the retrieval of the summary, so it describes the state of talks at that time and not the present situation. A separate Wikipedia timeline covers the 2026 Iran war from 28 February 2026 onward [3]. The retrieved excerpt names the period and its start date but does not give the events within it, so no further detail about the conflict can be drawn from it here [3].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the United States begins a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Iran during the period ending December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET [1]. Its wording is narrow. It turns on the start of an offensive with a control objective, and on the territorial baseline set on November 4, 2025 [1]. Broader hostilities, strikes, or negotiations do not directly settle the contract unless they meet those terms as judged by a consensus of credible sources [1]. For readers, the value of the entry is in understanding these rules. The contract gives a market view on one specific question as defined by its rules, and its prices reflect how participants value that outcome at the time of observation. Those prices are not a verified probability, and they do not show the reasoning behind any trade [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-13 at 12:27 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for the contract to resolve Yes?
The contract resolves Yes if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET [1].
Which land counts as Iranian or US territory for this market?
Land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, is considered the sovereign territory of that country under the rules [1].
How will the market be resolved?
The resolution source is described as a consensus of credible sources [1].
Does the December 31, 2026 date mean an invasion has been scheduled?
No. The date is part of the contract rules and the provider's listed end time, which is January 1, 2027, at 04:59 UTC [1]. The rules do not describe any announced military action.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Saved price pairs
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No exact saved pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
