BNB Up or Down - October 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract, titled "BNB Up or Down - October 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET," is listed on Polymarket [1]. It states that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules specify that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A contract on a different price source or time window would need its own rules to be compared.
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T09:00:00.000Z [1]. The title uses Eastern Time, while the listed end time is in UTC, so readers should check both when matching windows.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation is timestamped 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T09:28:08.904Z [1]. These times describe the market at an earlier point. They do not show its condition today. At retrieval, the provider status was active [1].
The snapshot shows Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are quoted prices from one saved snapshot. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.00. The coverage record reports one total market, one included market, and partialSample set to false [1]. The saved event contains only this market, but the evidence does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome. There is no second platform in this sample, so no cross-platform comparison is possible.
The gap between the two prices is small, so the snapshot does not show a clear lean. The evidence also does not include volume, liquidity, or the number of traders, so it cannot indicate how deep or broadly held the market was.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include the TWAP values, the BNB price at the start of the window, or any later price. It cannot indicate the outcome. It also does not explain why the prices were where they were. Whether the market has changed, closed, or resolved since the snapshot is not established here. Readers should check the provider page and the Chainlink data stream directly.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term binary contract titled "BNB Up or Down - October 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET," listed on Polymarket under the Crypto category [1]. The contract asks whether BNB's price will rise over a specific 15-minute window. According to the listed rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink TWAP data stream for the BNB/USD pair, not any other source or spot market [1]. This means the outcome depends on the specific data stream named in the rules, and a move on a different exchange or price feed would not by itself determine the result. The saved listing shows an active status and a listed end time of 2026-10-20T09:00:00.000Z [1]. In the saved snapshot, the Up outcome was priced at 0.505 and the Down outcome at 0.495 at the observation time of 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z [1]. These are snapshot prices from the provider listing, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The contract had not closed at the time of the retrieval shown here, so no resolution outcome is established by the supplied material.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of BNB's price over one short window, using a time-weighted average rather than a single price at the close. The rules compare the average over the window with the price at the window's beginning [1]. Because the reference is a TWAP from one named Chainlink data stream, the contract isolates that specific measurement, and the rules say other sources and spot markets are not used [1]. Readers should therefore treat the contract's wording, not general news about BNB, as the basis for what the market settles on.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as an Up resolution?
The market resolves to Up if the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What counts as a Down resolution?
If the TWAP over the specified range is not greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, the market resolves to Down [1].
Which data source determines the outcome?
The stated resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink. The rules say the market is not based on other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the contract end?
The saved listing gives a listed end time of 2026-10-20T09:00:00.000Z [1].
Do the displayed prices show the chance of an outcome?
The prices are snapshots from the provider listing at the observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.