GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

Name: Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
End: 2026-10-31T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.49M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

Vol

$1.49M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.49M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.49M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Poly	33%
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Poly	18%
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	Poly	11%
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	Poly	5%
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 7?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

33%

Top Probability

$1.49M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 31, 2026 (57 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran.

A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establish"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $407.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $80.4K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.07)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $322.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $65.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 7?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 7, 2026): Vol $5.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 4. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 14, 2026): Vol $7.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 21, 2026): Vol $5.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics