Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

Name: Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
End: 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$27.80K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

Vol

$27.80K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $27.80K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $27.80K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?	Poly	31%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

31%

Top Probability

$27.80K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers before a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (81 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers before a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announce"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $27.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $21.7K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.28)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $27.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics