Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Which Senate races will be within 5 points?

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$23.20K

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Which Senate races will be within 5 points?

Vol

$23.20K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $23.20K

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Volume DistributionTotal: $23.20K

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12 markets tracked

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Iowa be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

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Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Iowa be decided by 5 percentage points or less?	Kalshi	75%
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas be decided by 5 percentage points or less?	Kalshi	67%
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Michigan be decided by 5 percentage points or less?	Kalshi	64%
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Kansas be decided by 5 percentage points or less?	Kalshi	62%
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Ohio be decided by 5 percentage points or less?	Kalshi	61%
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Nebraska be decided by 5 percentage points or less?	Kalshi	59%
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Maine be decided by 5 percentage points or less?	Kalshi	54%
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in South Carolina be decided by 5 percentage points or less?	Kalshi	54%
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Alaska be decided by 5 percentage points or less?	Kalshi	53%
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in New Hampshire be decided by 5 percentage points or less?	Kalshi	33%
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Florida be decided by 5 percentage points or less?	Kalshi	33%
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in North Carolina be decided by 5 percentage points or less?	Kalshi	21%

AI Analysis

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75%

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$23.20K

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About This Event

Nov 3, 2026 If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election X falls within 0 to 5 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin is the difference between the winner's vote share and the second-place finisher's vote share, measured in percentage points. Zero indicates a tie. Certified official results are used, subject to the contract's Fully-Conducted Elections and accelerated-resolution provisions. For rank

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which Senate races will be within 5 points?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Nov 3, 2026

If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election X falls within 0 to 5 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin is the difference between the winner's vote share and the second-place finisher's vote share, measured in percentage points. Zero indicates a tie. Certified official results are used, subject to the contract's Fully-Conducted Elections and accelerated-resolution provisions. For rank

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas falls within 0 to 5 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin is the difference between the winner's vote share and the second-place f"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $23.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas be decided by 5 percentage points or less?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 67.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in South Carolina be decided by 5 percentage points or less?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 54.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Ohio be decided by 5 percentage points or less?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in New Hampshire be decided by 5 percentage points or less?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $384
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Nebraska be decided by 5 percentage points or less?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $238
  DATA: [Yes: 58.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in North Carolina be decided by 5 percentage points or less?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Michigan be decided by 5 percentage points or less?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 64.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Maine be decided by 5 percentage points or less?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 54.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Kansas be decided by 5 percentage points or less?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 62.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Iowa be decided by 5 percentage points or less?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 74.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Florida be decided by 5 percentage points or less?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Alaska be decided by 5 percentage points or less?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $959
  DATA: [Yes: 53.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Which Senate races will be within 5 points?

Volume$23.20K

Markets12

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KALSHI

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Iowa be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 74.5¢No 25.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Iowa be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Iowa falls within 0 to 5 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin is the difference between the winner's vote share and the second-place fi

KALSHI

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 67.0¢No 33.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas falls within 0 to 5 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin is the difference between the winner's vote share and the second-place f

KALSHI

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Michigan be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 64.0¢No 36.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Michigan be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Michigan falls within 0 to 5 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin is the difference between the winner's vote share and the second-plac

KALSHI

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Kansas be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 62.0¢No 38.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Kansas be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Kansas falls within 0 to 5 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin is the difference between the winner's vote share and the second-place

KALSHI

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Ohio be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 60.5¢No 39.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Ohio be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Ohio falls within 0 to 5 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin is the difference between the winner's vote share and the second-place fi

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Which Senate races will be within 5 points?

Which Senate races will be within 5 points?

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Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Iowa be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

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Events (1)

Which Senate races will be within 5 points?

Markets (12)

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Iowa be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Iowa be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Michigan be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Michigan be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Kansas be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Kansas be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Ohio be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Ohio be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

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Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Iowa be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which Senate races will be within 5 points?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Iowa be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Iowa be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Michigan be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Michigan be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Kansas be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Kansas be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Ohio be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Ohio be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

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